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Booster drops are random.
Don't think the chance is open information.
Rare. My current estimate would be a level 9 or less could expect a booster for about 2-3% of their eligible games each month, but that is only a very rough figure based on very limited data. And of course it varies a lot from game to game - presumably games that have only just had cards added generate lots of boosters in the first few days as the first wave of people trade for cards and craft their badges, whereas the amount of cards being traded/sold and thus new badges crafted for games that have had card for a couple of months now are probably very small, and thus the amount of boosters for those games are presumably much rarer.
Coincidence. Crafting badges doesn't make you any more likely to get a booster, except very indirectly at the end of the hour that you crafted the badge, as you crafting a badge increases the number of boosters generated and handed out that hour by Steam (by 2-5 depending on how many cards in a set), and presumably you would be able to win one of those boosters you have caused to be generated.
Or if crafting a badge gives you enough XP to raise your level to the next drop bonus (10, 20, 30, etc.)
By now, I have 13 eligible games (and 2 mystery games -- my badges page tells me I have two games with drops remaining, and a total of 18 drops remaining, but all games actually listed have all their drops...). I have not received a booster pack "yet".