What`s your opinion about: generating a working Steam key has less chance than winning $1 billion?

[76561199036715681]

Dear community, I was bored so I decided to calculate how many combinations there can be for a Steam key (in the format XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX), so I chose the basic combination formula and (36!/31!*5!)^3, where 36! is (36 characters that can be used (26 alphabets and 10 numbers)), 5! is how many characters you need to use and 31! is that the order doesn't matter and I got 53579221976383488 or 53 quadrillion combinations, then I looked up what the average chance of winning $1 billion was and it was 1 in 10,000,000. So if anyone wants to generate a Steam key, better do something else, your chance is almost 0)

[Ducks on Fire]

Well considering lotteries are meant for someone to win and Steam keys aren't meant to be generated by random people it makes sense that the latter would have nearly impossible odds.

[Ogami]

Chances are even lower since there is no infinite amount of keys.
Keys get created in batches by the developer/publisher ( usually a few thousand at a time) and then resold on authorized reseller sites.
So you have all those combination possibilities but only a certain amout of keys that could be any of them.

[Tito Shivan]

Originally posted by Ogami:

Chances are even lower since there is no infinite amount of keys.
Keys get created in batches by the developer/publisher ( usually a few thousand at a time) and then resold on authorized reseller sites.
So you have all those combination possibilities but only a certain amout of keys that could be any of them.

Also not every combination can work as a Steam key. They're algorithmic, just like not every group of 16 numbers can be a credit card number.

[Thiesen]

Not to mention that the combinations most likely only exist when the system generates them...

Untill they actually exist they will not yield anything...

[Heraclius Caesar]

Originally posted by 76561199036715681:

Dear community, I was bored so I decided to calculate how many combinations there can be for a Steam key (in the format XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX), so I chose the basic combination formula and (36!/31!*5!)^3, where 36! is (36 characters that can be used (26 alphabets and 10 numbers)), 5! is how many characters you need to use and 31! is that the order doesn't matter and I got 53579221976383488 or 53 quadrillion combinations, then I looked up what the average chance of winning $1 billion was and it was 1 in 10,000,000. So if anyone wants to generate a Steam key, better do something else, your chance is almost 0)

? Cool.

Find better ways to spend your time.

[Kargor]

Originally posted by Tito Shivan:

Also not every combination can work as a Steam key. They're algorithmic

Are you sure? "Algorithmic" would actually LOWER the security, because you could ignore certain combinations right away. If each digit is generated randomly then you cannot locally discard key-candidates as there is no pattern to examine them beforehand.

Originally posted by Thiesen:

Not to mention that the combinations most likely only exist when the system generates them...

Untill they actually exist they will not yield anything...

And when the key was already redeemed you can pat yourself on the head because you found a valid Steam key, but it's not giving you anything. So, at any point in time, only a small fraction of the generated keys are actually still armed.

[Tito Shivan]

Originally posted by Kargor:

Are you sure?

Not really, but most codes include at the very least some sort of 'error correction' (like control digits) It wouldn't surprise me if they weren't totally 'random'

But since all keys are server-side validated there may be not so much need to be algorythmic.

Who knows.

There's also other considerations, like avoiding similar symbols (Like s and 0s). which I'm not sure if Steam keys follow right now (Been a while since the last key I redeemed)

Originally posted by Kargor:

And when the key was already redeemed you can pat yourself on the head because you found a valid Steam key, but it's not giving you anything. So, at any point in time, only a small fraction of the generated keys are actually still armed.

We also have to account for all the already redeemed combinations.

[cinedine]

The number is actually a bit lower. AFAIR Steam keys do not have O, S, U and 1 in them at all so you cannot mix them up with 0, 5, V, and I.

If you are lucky, they might even map the missing characters to their equivalent as input error correction, giving you more valid codes.
(I am a bit surprised they have 2 and Z in them though)

Rule of thumb is to assume 20 characters (also accounting for I=J and W= VV) when generating keys.

You usually also avoid repeating characters to avoid user error by skipping or even repeating patterns. You would also avoid words or number sequences. A Steam code reading SATAN-X666X-ALLAH will certainly look hilarious, but if Doom would be assigned to it you WILL make the news. And "it's random" will not help you against fundamentalist Christian soccer moms. :P

[76561199036715681]

Originally posted by Heraclius Caesar:

Originally posted by 76561199036715681:

Dear community, I was bored so I decided to calculate how many combinations there can be for a Steam key (in the format XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX), so I chose the basic combination formula and (36!/31!*5!)^3, where 36! is (36 characters that can be used (26 alphabets and 10 numbers)), 5! is how many characters you need to use and 31! is that the order doesn't matter and I got 53579221976383488 or 53 quadrillion combinations, then I looked up what the average chance of winning $1 billion was and it was 1 in 10,000,000. So if anyone wants to generate a Steam key, better do something else, your chance is almost 0)

? Cool.

Find better ways to spend your time.

btw, i wasted 10-15 minutes while preparing for exams)

[76561199036715681]

Originally posted by cinedine:

The number is actually a bit lower. AFAIR Steam keys do not have O, S, U and 1 in them at all so you cannot mix them up with 0, 5, V, and I.

If you are lucky, they might even map the missing characters to their equivalent as input error correction, giving you more valid codes.
(I am a bit surprised they have 2 and Z in them though)

Rule of thumb is to assume 20 characters (also accounting for I=J and W= VV) when generating keys.

You usually also avoid repeating characters to avoid user error by skipping or even repeating patterns. You would also avoid words or number sequences. A Steam code reading SATAN-X666X-ALLAH will certainly look hilarious, but if Doom would be assigned to it you WILL make the news. And "it's random" will not help you against fundamentalist Christian soccer moms. :P

but steam key actually use XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX-XXXXX format too and figure is even bigger than 53 quadrillion

[Ben Lubar]

The chance of picking a valid Steam key by a pure random guess depends entirely on how many unclaimed Steam keys there are. That number is never going to even remotely approach the number of possible Steam keys.

You're much more likely to be able to "generate" a Steam key by emailing a developer and asking them if they can give you a Steam key for free. The chance that a randomly selected game developer will say yes to a random stranger asking for a free key is astronomically higher than the chance you'll pick a random sequence of 25 characters that happens to be an unclaimed, valid Steam key.

And the only way to check would be to redeem it, which would make the code no longer be an unclaimed, valid Steam key.

[jvkthejedi]

Thanks for the advice, I been working on my gambling...lol

[Ben Lubar]

Originally posted by Beltneck:

Now that sounds like a job for AI.

I won't trust it to drive my car, but I will trust it to guess 50 quadrillion numbers.

Doesn't matter who's guessing the numbers. Steam isn't going to let you try that many keys within a human lifetime.