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While you would miss a few things like references, Cold steel 1 is a good starting point. I started there and went back to enjoy the sky series and plan to do the crossbell arc after cold steel 3. Would it be best to start at Trails in the sky? Yes. Would everyone enjoy playing through 7 games just to get to this point? No. I would argue that as long as you don't play Crossbell arc or Cold Steel 3 before Trails in the sky, you won't even get spoiled for the most part.
Pros-
You miss the tediousness of all the introductions since the intro is new to you, so you don't get "bored" with it.
You also won't miss how they "twisted" some of the characters into a reset that totally negates their basic growth and personality (Rean has a bit of it but the biggest one is Hugo).
You don't have to use up about a weeks worth of time playing the older games before starting on this one.
Cons-
You can get irritated with the references to the older games that you don't get but those are not plot breaking, they do give an exposition but the repeated references can be annoying.
You don't have the emotional investment in the game and characters and so might be less forgiving of some of the nonsense that the game pulls with the storyline.
You get spoilers.
You can start from 3, it's no problem, it's just annoying rather than gamebreaking. I'd recommend starting from CS1 though. Or if you can/want, from Sky1, but it really is optional.
Dragon, for all your completionist rhetoric, I find it strange that you never insisted that people must listen to the drama CD for Cold Steel 1 yet. After all, CS2 has many references to the drama CD, yet somehow you never insisted that people have to listen to it in order to play CS2. There was them having a class trip there, finding the Spirit Path shrine from Ymir, Rean getting promoted to Intermediate user of the 8 Leaves style, a fight set up by Blublanc, how Rean induced an incident 3 years back that made him afraid of his powers, yet despite all these fairly important events, you never told anyone to listen to the Drama CD did you?
So why do you insist on everyone playing all the games in order, yet miss out on such an "important" CD?
I once asked my buddy where I could delve into the One Piece series, since it's massive and apparently still very high quality after 20 years. He told me something on the lines of, "well, ya kinda wanna start at this arc, which will expose you to this devil fruit system, but then ya wanna go earlier in order to start at that arc, which will expose you to that devil fruit thing, but then ya wanna go earlier...." And, it resulted in him advising I start at the very beginning. "Damn, BravoZulu... that wasn't very helpful advice, was it?" "Yeah.... uh... I'll catch the sparknotes..." Such a situation happens when new fans ask where they should start in the Trails series. It's tough for fans to arrive at a consensus as to which game is the best entry point for new fans who aren't ready to start at the very beginning.
Interestingly enough, that same friend started halfway through Stephen King's Dark Tower series (book 3 of 7), and read backwards, then forwards. That didn't spoil his enjoyment; it ended up being his absolute favorite series. He told me that the Book 1 was so tedious that he skipped it and just read whatever book in the series he wanted to. It not only worked, but he loved it. I've read the first book too. I agree. It was tedious. But the groundwork it laid became relevant for the rest of the series. It can be thought of similarly to the very first Trails game: Trails in the Sky First Chapter. Fans consider this the most tedious of the series, not because it is bad (it is incredibly heartwarming), but that it was the very first game in the entire 10-game series (and counting), and the studio was setting the groundwork. If you wish to skip it and come back later, that's a fine thing. My friend had already invested 3 books into the Dark Tower series, and only then had the curiosity to find out, "what started it all?"
It is not impossible! If there's a will, there's a way. We guarantee you'll enjoy CS III. Many in the fandom love this game the most because to some it is the culmination of 3 games; for others, 6 games; and for the most hardcore, 8 games. It's understandable that those with more working knowledge of the series get more out of the game. Such fans may enjoy the game 100%. I'd say a newcomer's enjoyment could still be close to 95%. That's simply because it is a fantastic game, through and through.
I would highly recommend getting CS I and maybe CS 3. My thinking is that CS 1 is such a fantastic game, and an excellent intro (being the first in the CS series), that chances are if you liked playing it, it'll be too late; you'll be sucked into the Trails community, and they'll never let you go! You'll never wanna leave, neither!
Check out the first CS game, which as of now is also on sale (save you 10 bucks or so), play just a bit each day before the trial runs out to see if it hooks you (I've got one dollar it would), and then enjoy the rest of the story.
This is just our advice. I've been a fan since SC came out on steam (quite some time ago!), and the series is not too daunting to start in little increments. My friends whom I've converted after years of persuading them are born-again; they don't remember what rpg gaming was like before they finally picked up the Trails games. We hope you'll join the fandom!
Funny, I played through Cold Steel 1 and 2 just fine and understood nearly everything I needed to to get whats going on in the trails world. Does that make me a lore master? Of course not but to say you need to absolutely play the other titles is false.
That's like saying you need to play every Ys title so you get every reference each game speaks of.
To answer OP's question: it is highly not recommended to jump into CS 3 without at least playing 1 and 2 or you will be severely left out of the original Class VII as well as whats been going to lead to where CS3 is
Little features here and there, some tweaks to even out some overpowering strategies from the older games a bit (The heady days of Zero when you could combine Randy's delay move with a slow or two and not give some bosses a single turn on Nightmare). That said there's still 4 games from TiTS 1 to even Cold Steel 1 so you're looking at some significant changes.
(And if you ever feel like going back to those know they do benefit quite nicely on PC from the addition of a fast-forward button).
Go from top to bottom for the best experience. You can also start at Cold Steel 1 if its too much to play through. While Cold Steel 3 does hint back to the older games a lot more, it won't be until Cold Steel 4 where you get a giant amount of people coming back. Also hope that we get an official translation of the Crossbell Arc but who knows when that will be (Looking at you NISA, I want to give you my money).
Liberl Arc:
Trails in the Sky FC
Trails in the Sky SC
Trails in the Sky 3rd
Crossbell Arc:
Trails from Zero (Geofront english patch)
Trails to Azure (Geofront english patch is at 75% editing and hopefully will be done by the time you get here)
Erebonia Arc:
Trails of Cold Steel 1
Trails of Cold Steel 2
Trails of Cold Steel 3
Trails of Cold Steel 4 (2021)
for now im gonna go with Trails in the Sky and see if i like it enough or not, thanks again!