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That being said, there are some connections if you care to look, but officially, they are not otherwise connected.
Not that that stops me from believing my own timeline...
BTW, here is the dev interview about how Trials of Mana (Seiken Densetsu 3) is NOT connected to the other games:
http://shmuplations.com/seikendensetsu3/
Not that this matters all that much for the individual games.
Just talking about the numbered games, it goes Dawn of Mana (4), Trials of Mana (3), Adventure of Mana (1), Secret of Mana (2).
http://shmuplations.com/seikendensetsu3/
As such, there will always be holes in theories and there is no perfect timeline because it doesn't exist. This is further complicated by the fact that multiple dimensions and reincarnation is mentioned (and is sometimes a key element of the plot) in many Mana games.
However... I believe that there is a timeline if you look at the evidence, and so am presenting it below:
SPOILERS FOR THE MANA SERIES BELOW!!!
Dawn of Mana- First of all, this has been stated by the game creators to be the first game in the Mana series. Additionally, besides the name, this clearly sets forth the continent/world of Fa’Diel, including the city-states, and explains how the original Mana Tree existed. Additionally, the Mana spirits are holding a council to discuss things that happened thousands of years ago, which refers to the events in the game, and there are literally countless Mana spirits created in the ending.
Children of Mana- Has the same exact setting as Dawn of Mana and is stated in the actual game to take place 10 years later. Additionally, sets up the Mana Tribe, as the Goddess of Mana gives the potential to create new Mana Trees to Tess and “your (her) daughters.”
Adventures of Mana- The city-states are still present with their original names, and the game sets up the last of the Mana Tribe and the final Tree of Mana, as there are no more female descendants to create a new mana tree if the current one, created in the ending, is destroyed. Additionally, in the Sword of Mana remake, mana spirits are still plentiful, and you can even acquire up to 8 of each yourself, while there are also certain NPCs who are stated to have one of their own, as well.
Heroes of Mana- Officially confirmed to be 19 years before Trials of Mana.
Trials of Mana- City-states are still present, but one of them has a new name. It is heavily implied that the mana spirits you encounter are the only ones present, which makes sense because Mana is in decline. Additionally, this sets up a way to recreate the Mana Tree without the tribe of Mana (which we know died out in the previous game).
Secret of Mana- The city-states are completely gone, replaced by new towns and cities. When viewing the orbs left by the ancients (which are said to be 1,000+ years old), the city-state names are mentioned , as well as a war between them. This clearly shows that the other games come before Secret of Mana, as these cities from these other games existed in the past of this game. It even implies how these cities were destroyed, in the great war involving the Fortress of Mana. The Mana Tree is burned by massively destructive weapons in this game, and there is no tribe of Mana or Faeries to birth a new one. It is again implied that only the 8 Mana spirits the party acquires remain, and they all disappear at the end because Mana power is gone forever in the ending .
Legend of Mana- Taking place after the Tree of Mana burned to ash (literally stated in the opening), this is the game that re-creates the world after the end. It only fits after Secret of Mana, because that is the only game that ends with Mana disappearing from the world permanently . All other games have the recreation of the Mana Tree in their endings.
So that's my personal belief. I plan sometime in the next couple weeks posting my full timeline with explanation and justifications, these are just some basic notes on why I believe this is the correct order (even though there officially isn't one).
I very strongly agree with your assessment.