Is there a trick to winning a "bolts" when you play with the three Oranges?

[LordBlade]

Cause I'm not having much luck.

[Kasa]

I don't think so, even if you cheat the best you can do is adjust the number between 1 and 3 without screwing up.

That said, if you're cheating hold 1 bolt in your hand since you can add or subtract 1 bolt with cheating you can adjust the final count by 0 and 2 giving you more control.

After winning I think this is actually a really good gambling game.

Tips:
- Cheating is the best way to win, you can win otherwise but it's MUCH harder.

- If you can try to cheat so that you go last as that gives you control over the final number.

- it doesn't matter what number you choose, I like the number 4, just remember your number and the numbers the other people have chosen.

- Keep track of the numbers said and the current number of bolts that have been shown so far, once your turn comes around try to cheat to add or remove bolts from your hand focusing on making sure they the number of bolts so far do not match any other players guess, this puts the odds better in your favour.

- It's easier to control the bolt numbers if you always keep 1 bolt in your hand and cheat to add or subtract a bolt.

Example:
Cheat to try and go last (this is no guarantee that you will go last)

NPC 1: guesses one bolt
NPC 2: guesses two bolts
NPC 3: guesses three bolts
Player: guesses four bolts

Now the goal here is to adjust the number so that there is NOT 1,2,3 bolts and hopefully make 4 bolts.

So if NPC 1 shows their hand and has 2 bolts that means that if the 2 other NPC's don't have any bolts in their hand NPC 2 wins that round.
So if you carry 1 bolt in your hand and you cheat you can win this round but adding a bolt to your hand making it 2 bolts and making the collective total 4 bolts winning the round.

The goal of the game is to win 3 times, as people win the max number of bolts go down but the AI is stupid and will still guess anywhere between 1 and 12 bolts. So keep that in mind.

Afterward:
All things considered this is a fun game but not really worth the exp and money you win vs how long it takes to win and how easy it is to lose.

Even if you win you are not getting 600 bucks back (800 - your entry anti) but only 400. Seems like the game was loaded against you in the first place and every one else didn't have to bet 200 bucks.

[PastLow]

If you want to win without cheating (i.e. without having to invest in the criminal skill), the most likely number is based on the number of bolts left in the game on enemy players.

The odds actually change as the other characters lose bolts, to reflect this I will list the most common outcome for each number of enemy bolts remaining, not counting yours because it doesnt affect the odds. If there are two numbers that means they are equally likely.

(Number of times enemy players have won) = (Most likely amount of enemy bolts)
0 wins = 4 or 5
1 win = 4
2 wins = 3 or 4
3 wins = 3
4 wins = 2 or 3
5 wins = 2
6 wins = 1 or 2

Then, to find what number you should choose:

(Number of bolts in the game) = (number of bolts you have in your hand) + (Most likely amount of enemy bolts)


Basically you want to keep track of how many times an enemy player has won, find the most likely choice from that, and then add your chosen number of bolts. As an example, suppose the enemy players have won 3 times, meaning there are 6 enemy bolts remaining, this means that the odds are the enemies will have 3 bolts. If you choose to hold 2 bolts in your hand for example, that means the most likely number will be 5.

Another thing of note is that if an enemy has already chosen the most likely number, you should always choose an adjacent number. For example if the most likely value is 5, you should choose either 4 or 6. If the enemies have chosen 4,5 and 6, you should take 3 or 7. The odds are basically like a staircase, where the probability slowly drops the further you get from the most likely number.

TL:DR A good rule of thumb if you don't care about playing perfectly is to just always pick (your number)+4 in the early game and then switch to (your number) +3 in the late game. This is because the game usually ends at around 1-3 enemy wins.