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Shred is applied first according to info in game. Otherwise it wouldn't really help against it because applying penetration will always get it to the cap.
It is worth reading guide in game because it explains many mechanics and terms (like how enemy penetration is scaled and how uncapped resistance helps):
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3170297738
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3170297871
Also useful (Resistance Shred):
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3170299558
It's only 2% per level against players, not 5% as you used in your calculations.
So Shock - -20% to Lightning Resistance, Resistance Shred - -20% to Respective Element Resistance, Marked for Death - -25% to All Resistances. I am not sure if there are enemies that apply all 3 effects and it will be hard for enemies to stack them to max so most likely having 100% uncapped resistance should be safe bet to not have increased damage against you.
It's not affected by penetration, but it is affected by enemy level, so I recommend also reading about armor in that guide.
Another useful thing to read about - types of attacks and which defenses apply to them. There are three types of attacks - hits (armor/resistances/endurance/dodge/parry/block/turning hits to glancing blow), dots-ailments (resistances/endurance, affliction duration reduction(?, I think I've seen it on some items but I couldn't find it in crafting)), dots-aoes (moving out of aoe, resistances/endurance).
If you ever care about overcapping any resistance, Poison and Physical are the two that most commonly have Shred effects it seems. The other shreds seem rare.
Max health, ward, sources of reliable healing and sources of fixed damage reduction are the best tools for survivability. Stun Avoidance isn't a bad defensive stat either, but not a priority by any means.
One problem with Armor and Dodge (and Glancing Blows and the like) is that they only work against Hits - and some of the most dangerous stuff are ground AoEs that do not hit. Those are generally stuff that you are meant to not get hit at all.
By the way, the Game Guide (and I second the person above, the Game Guide is overall fantastic) has an incorrect rule of thumb for the Dodge formula. I imagine it was a leftover from a previous version of the formula. It says that having "ten times the area level will give you roughly 50% dodge chance" - it actually gives you roughly 25% dodge chance. More details and a formula graph: https://steamcommunity.com/app/899770/discussions/0/4338725867372381093/
Oh and do try to have a way to clear debuffs/DoTs. I imagine every class has some Skill Specialization that gives you a way to do this? Rogue has options in Shift and Smoke Bomb, at least. There's also a belt affix for potions, I believe.
I haven't died yet (up to level 70 so far), but the few times that gave me a scare where due to a combination of Stun + ground aoe + stacks of Shred. Felt like the high health pool was what saved me.