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Circle = Higher chance but still zero control over what you find big RNG
Edit. Going CoF btw, since i think getting bis gear through trade will be pain anyways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS6WLpIHaHU&t=411s
Time stamp: 6:43
Lets take a loot at what the CoF is really offering in that small clip.
Edit:
Between target farming, blessings, and prophecies CoF will have plenty of ways to gain control over item drops.
I don't think the merchant option will ever be really viable though because I expect too small a number of people will use it. The vast majority of players in other games in the genre almost never trade, they might list a really valuable item they find, or buy one specific piece they need for a build, but they typically avoid the trading mechanics. Those people are kind of required for a "trade league" to function, because even though they are only moving small amounts individually, they feed required items into the economy and it adds up as a whole. Those people are also likely to all go circle here because it just makes more sense for them, and even if they could trade the lack of reselling means the economy can never really build up. What you want to buy will probably never be for sale when you need it, not enough people listing items and every item listed is permanently removed from the economy once bought once.
So to answer your question, my expectation and opinion is, no. The merchant guild will probably be an abandoned faction after the first few days.
I wont even get into the fact that one option adds new gameplay mechanics and goals, and the other is literally just trading and nothing else.
No. It's one or the other. You can switch between them but all the gear is locked so you can't for example farm gear as circle and then switch to merchant to sell it. Likewise if your circle character is missing an item you can't just buy it by switching to merchant because that item will be locked to merchant and unusable on circle.
If you get tired of merchant and want to switch to circle or the other way around, you basically have to start over in terms of gearing and none of your item progression from other other faction will matter.
You don't lose your faction progression, you just can't use your items, so your "item progression" is lost. You can switch back to it again and pick up where you left of with your old item set. It's basically like playing two different characters though and switching between them.
From what I understand you cannot have both active at the same time but you keep the level you have in each when you switch. So it would mean that if you maxed out merchant guild you can switch to CoF and start leveling it but come back at some point to merchant guild and still have it high level. That is how I understood it, might not be it but I guess we'll soon discover exactly how it works.
By the time you grind your MG rank to buy your first lp uniques and exalted items, CoF will be swimming on those.
https://steamcommunity.com/app/899770/discussions/0/6689601154225397361/
There is a link, turns out the LE content creators tend to think CoF is vastly superior. Even Lizardirl who was going to go trade was lured away to the CoF faction due to the lootsplosions, as shown in the video I linked a few posts up.