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It can take a very long time for them to flip. Bismarck was pretty stubborn one game and never did flip.
Tourism has no factor on ideology AFAIK. The opposite is true, shared ideology increases tourism. My understanding is that Ideology pressure is based strictly on happiness. You may have made it impossible for them to switch by crushing them down to one city. A few buildings will give them the happiness they need to avoid a forced switch.
Do civs need to have a negative Happiness as well as negative Public Opinion to convert? Do civs need to be Friendly to convert? I'm pretty sure when I had the civ at -24 Public Opinion they were Friendly with me, and they didn't convert then either.
"Dennis Shirk: "If I choose say, Order, and you’re Freedom, and I’m generating all this Tourism, my influence is going to start pressing on your empire and your people are going to start getting unhappy. If you let it go on too long, you basically have to either declare war on me or switch to my ideology. Your cities might start flipping to my civilization if they riot too much."
Kate Distler: "When your happiness gets down to -20, then your Cities will start abandoning your empire. If your people are this unhappy, they will have a Preferred Ideology they’d like to switch to. We look at all your cities to see how close they are to the capital cities of the civs following that Ideology (and how much pressure you are receiving from each of those civ’s cultures). Based on those factors we can pick the city that will flip (and which civ it will defect to).""
I had over -20 before and the civ had a higher public opinion rating than I have with them now. I presume -20 was an example based on how many cities they have, etc. I have them on a lower public opinion rating right now, but they have only 1 city. That public opinion unhappiness states it's based on # of cities and population.
I just don't get it, because I did it the one way first when they had a large # of cities and population. When that didnt work I dominated them and just boosted my Tourism and Culture heavilly...and still it's not working.
The AI flipped have been large expansive civs that could not manage their happiness effectively. By reducing them to one city you made their happiness easy to manage and it's unlikely they will be forced to flip.
Negative happiness from public opinion is not enough. It's their overall happiness that matters. Cities will not revolt and leave the empire until -20 global happiness. I imagine the AI need to get to that point before they decide to flip. I'll monitor it closer next time to see when they make the decision.
I've yet to see another civ flip from culture, and like OP I've seen situations where a civ was under a LOT of pressure and still didn't flip. I think the explanation, however, is that even with all this pressure, it still wouldn't be worthwhile switching ideology because it causes one to lose all the current benefits of chosen ideologies. If my civ was in a state of 'revolutionary wave' but I'm playing as Order and have chosen tenets that give me happiness from both monuments, workshop, factories and nuclear plants then it might in fact not give me that much extra happiness switching since I would lose all these benefits doing so. Also, there's two turns of anarchy from switching which is another significant penalty. But ultimately, as we all know the Civ 5 AI isn't exactly genius so you can't expect it to always do what would be best for it anyhow.
2 games ive played everyone had the same one at the end. One civ held on with -47 happines as they must have had a lot of happiness as there golabal was only about -7 , eventually they switched , they hung on for about 50 turns longer than anyone else.
It's like a domino effect once it starts.