Why do Spanish win rates on 1v1 fluctuate so much for top 1%?

[James3157]

My question is in specific reference towards multiplayer. There win rates on 1v1 vary significantly where I had recently seen them in the top 5 win rates, but then dropped recently to bottom 10 for win rates. I get that the Spanish seem to be overall better for team games than 1v1, but I have also noticed sharply contrasting win rates as well for them at least when it comes to the top 1% of players. I have no explanation as to why besides maybe them being an overall average civ or slightly below average civ for top 1% of players when it comes to win rates to help why they have sharply contrasting overall win rates on 1v1. Aztecs for example I have noticed do not have sharply contrasting win rates with top 1% contrary to the Spanish civ meaning they are one of those civs that seem to have an overall tendency to lose games instead of win on 1v1.

[Vemonia]

I am not sure when you last saw Spanish at the top of the winrates, but I see two likely reasons:
- Maps: Spanish are very map dependent, very good on nomad and closed maps (where they are picked a lot), and bad on open maps (where they are randomed). At new patches (ex. 125283 on Oct. 15th) the winrates resets on stats websites and the map pools impacts the winrate a lot.
- The meta has been fluctuating a lot recently, top players play more cav archers and less xbows than before, which favors Spanish. If the meta at the top level stabilize or civs without Thumbring/HCA also play cav archers to the point that most HCA civ cannot afford thumbring, Spanish lose their edge (good HCA) and are back at being a civ with mediocre eco.

[James3157]

Originally posted by Vemonia:

I am not sure when you last saw Spanish at the top of the winrates, but I see two likely reasons:
- Maps: Spanish are very map dependent, very good on nomad and closed maps (where they are picked a lot), and bad on open maps (where they are randomed). At new patches (ex. 125283 on Oct. 15th) the winrates resets on stats websites and the map pools impacts the winrate a lot.
- The meta has been fluctuating a lot recently, top players play more cav archers and less xbows than before, which favors Spanish. If the meta at the top level stabilize or civs without Thumbring/HCA also play cav archers to the point that most HCA civ cannot afford thumbring, Spanish lose their edge (good HCA) and are back at being a civ with mediocre eco.

That would also help explain why Aztecs in contrast have consistently low win rates for top 1%. There most common map picks with arena, arabia, and megarandom all have low win rates. There highest number of picks for maps with higher win rates than arena is a surprisingly low number of only 14 from Black Forest (71.43% win rate), 18 from Runestones (61.11% win rate), and 16 from African Clearing (50% win rate). Even if you combine them all together that is still less than the 96 picks from Arena at only 45.83% win rate.