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Just because a country has access to the sea does not automatically give them a historically strong navy. My Bulgarian history is not amazing but I don't think their fighting at sea is what they had to deal with, it was mostly land invasions.
You mention bombard towers? But not bombard cannons? One is much more useful than the other. I know what I would rather have 99% of the time.
Kreposts are nice for getting out more unique units but fall short as powerful defensive tool. They have one less range than castles and towers (and donjons) which means the're less effective both offensively and defensively. Their main draw being they're cheap and you can drop one down much quicker than a castle. The flip side of this is if your opponent gets their own castle up next a krepost, that krepost is gone.
Bulgarian archery range is a mixed bag. Lacking crossbows does not hurt too much. Replace them with siege instead.
No mention of militia-line being free upgrade? (used to save more when the techs cost more but it's still free and instant). You can rush very early with militia and soon as Feudal Age is complete you opponent suddenly has a much scarier unit attacking them than a mere militia.
It's one of my favourite civs to play, only weakness being the lack of bombard cannons. My god, if they access to that. Bulgarian late game would be a fun, but overpowered time.
EDIT: They also have one of the best hussars in the game. You did not touch on that. Another great late game tool in their box.
Fortunately, the AI may not be as smart as a human player regardless of AI type (CD, HD, and DE) and difficulty settings. While sniping a town center with a krepost or castle is easier for a human player against the AI it might also be more challenging to do this against a human player from multiplayer.
You do not have last Archer Armor, therefore you cannot even rely on ESkirm in the long run to counter (Cav) Archer civs in IMP.
No HC either, and there are plenty of civs that can whack your Bagains* 2HS with their own Infantry.
*A bad tech - should either be cheaper or better.
Bulgarians I think are average at best; although, they do surprisingly have a higher win rate than Mayans for 1v1 (50.73% win rate vs. 49.05% win rate for 1v1 other maps besides Arabia). You might be able to do win against the AI as the Bulgarians, but they do not have one of the highest win rates either from 1v1 multiplayer (50.73% win rate for other maps besides Arabia is not bad overall, but could be better) contrary to the Franks, Romans (53% win rate possibly making them ranked number 1; although, it did drop below 53% recently and ranked below Franks for 1v1 Arabia maps), and ect...
No, it's not bad. their skirmishers are fine, they'll still deal with most archer units even lacking the armour. They also have heavy cavalry archers and thumb ring, they have Parthian Tactics so missing the last armour upgrade is not much different to Mongols but without the civ bonus. So late game if they really need to deal with something weak to archers they can go the cavalry archer route. If they did have the final archer armour upgrade I'd honestly say their archery range is good...fully upgraded skirmishers and cavalry archers. Missing hand cannons is whatever at that point.
Also how many games end up decided in castle age? Their skirmishers do the job in arguably the most critical age after the early feudal nonsense has settled down and nobody is dead. Average game is around 45 minutes (across all ELOs it's shorter at the higher levels). Imperial Age happens around 38+ minute mark. This means most games are decided in castle age and the winning player probably gets imperial age to finish the match with trebs or a extra few upgrades. Missing the last armour upgrade is not the end of the world for their skirmishers or cavalry archers. Long protracted games with skirmisher vs skirmisher or vs high damage unique archers? Then yes it's a problem.
Bagains is a good upgrade, but maybe a tiny bit on the expensive side. Apart from the powerhouse infantry unique units or unique techs. They effectively beat a lot of units, even Japanese champions if pathing is not ideal can lose to them or Teutons. Generic champions, straight up lose. Camels deal no damage to them. Eagles have a bad enough time vs militia-line imagine dealing no damage to them, constantly forced to run away. You bring in infantry counters or heavy cavalry sure it's going to be less favourable. I'd underestimate them at your peril. I've only had good experiences using Bulgarian infantry. So my perception might not be the best there.
It's funny you mention eagles, because all 3 Eagle civs have EXCELLENT counters to your 2 HS:
1)Jaguars (or just their own Champions with Garland Wars)
2)Very cheap FU Arbalests (or Plumes)
3)Slingers
Yeah, it's also nice that you've only evaluated contrived favorable matchups for the Bagains 2 HS.
Why don't you try your Bagains vs Wootz Steel?
Wootz Steel Champions vs Garland Wars Champions? Equal.
Wootz Steel vs Bagains? The latter is COMPLETELY useless and is thus a bad upgrade.
Trying to explain myself is just going result in talking in circles. You list exceptions or other civs going into their own unique tech options to counter your own. Mayans have cheap archers and plumes that's nice, Bulgarians have siege engineers and siege onager.
Bulgarians kit works well at the average level, they fall apart at high ELO like I've said before because like lack any economic bonus. And any high level player is going try to stop the Bulgarian from get their dream army. Mayan for example won't let the Bulgarian get to siege engineered onagers.
As for Bagains what if it also gave pierce armour? Not much just +1. Might be too OP vs straight archer civs like Britons. Maybe making it a bit cheaper is the safe option. I'm not here to do balance changes for a mostly balanced civ now that only struggles are high ELO.