Oil price

[Airfoil]

I am running a game that started in 1960, now in year 1977, and found the oil and fuel prices go absolutely crazy, reaching 6000 / t (both in RUB and USD approx)

Now in 1977 is between 2000 and 3000 per ton for oil while steel for example is only around 1000/t

In this game my vehicles are not using fuel (I did not want to deal with refueling diesel trains on top of the complexities of realistic mode... )
For this reason I did not even realise how expensive oil and fuel became, until I started exporting it for a huge profit.

I understand that inflation is modeled, but I find it strange, that simple oil is 3 times more expensive than steel for example.

Is this intentional or is it a bug?

[Pfirsich1966]

This happened to me once with another material, I don't know what it was. In any case, the price returned to normal after a few days.

edit:
https://steamcommunity.com/app/784150/discussions/1/5250637387533120266/

[GoRun]

Import oil for full refinery prod, export fuel bitumen and profit is always 6x-10x. I made 150mil R until 1970 because was so high. After that price dropped but profit was still 6x. Oil price boom doesn't happen every time, maybe its random global event but you cant do that with crops and food. Oil business is op even without market boom. I think price boom happens because you disable fuel need for vehicles.

[Airfoil]

I was also thinking, that it might be going crazy because I disabled fuel for vehicles, but in that case it should go the other way I think (no demand --> low price imo...)

Having market movements is nice, but in this case it does not make sense. If one basic commodity like oil and fuel goes 10x, that would create a huge general inflation realistically (steel and other goods should boom with it)

Historically it went from around 25 USD to 140 + IRL in the 70ies. Huge increase but far from the 10x + in game.

[Pr0wn]

They have modelled the 1970s oil crisis, prices should drop sharply once you reach 1980

[GoRun]

Its a bug with disabled fuel for vehicles on top of special oil price mechanics. There is export import limit with trains but not with ships, its a bug. If you export 2000t per month price drops and inflation slows down but in 2010 inflation is so fast that you need 10kt export to affect it. I thinking that oil price is historical but i dont have enough evidence.

[GoRun]

In my last game i use fuel and power and price of oil until 2030 does not follow usual curve of inflation. I've tryed max fuel export for few years but price graph stays flat. In 2030-2039 oil price went 40R > 150R and fuel+bitumen price 2000R > 5000R. All R prices went 5x up in 10 years but $ graph is flat for 60y.

[Deco Boladasso]

Were you producing and exporting oil? Prices tend to go down if you produce stuff.

Btw, this is totally realistic. Oil prices had huge crisis during these periods; many point that the 80's oil crisis lead to the fall of the USSR. So yeah, game-breaking skyrocketing oil prices are realistic. You should be autonomous on fuel and take advantage of oil prices. I always have oil reserves for such situations in my republics.

https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Oil_crisis_of_the_1970s

[MrKrabs]

It also depends how much you export and by what form of transportation. Ship is best, truck is worse. If some volume is reached some mechanism kicks in. It was mentioned in one of the reports. I can not recall this mechanism in detail.

[Airfoil]

Publicado originalmente por Deco Boladasso:

Were you producing and exporting oil? Prices tend to go down if you produce stuff.

Btw, this is totally realistic. Oil prices had huge crisis during these periods; many point that the 80's oil crisis lead to the fall of the USSR. So yeah, game-breaking skyrocketing oil prices are realistic. You should be autonomous on fuel and take advantage of oil prices. I always have oil reserves for such situations in my republics.

https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Oil_crisis_of_the_1970s

I just started exporting, after noticing the extreme prices.

This is certainly not realistic (the amount of price increase). It's nice to have the oil crisis modeled, it's just too much

I've bought MAZ heavy trucks for 100k a piece to take advantage of this quickly and they turn 300k profit every round they make, so...

Fuel was around 6000 USD / t, that is around 4,8 USD / liter....

My republic is happy, getting filthy rich because of this. Problem is, it looks unrealistic.

[Airfoil]

Just checked, in the early game peak price was 60 USD/t and it went 6000 USD/t +
That's a 100x increase, certainly not correct.

[GoRun]

How much in Rubels? Usually $ is stable for 60years

[Deco Boladasso]

Publicado originalmente por Airfoil:

Publicado originalmente por Deco Boladasso:

Were you producing and exporting oil? Prices tend to go down if you produce stuff.

Btw, this is totally realistic. Oil prices had huge crisis during these periods; many point that the 80's oil crisis lead to the fall of the USSR. So yeah, game-breaking skyrocketing oil prices are realistic. You should be autonomous on fuel and take advantage of oil prices. I always have oil reserves for such situations in my republics.

https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Oil_crisis_of_the_1970s

I just started exporting, after noticing the extreme prices.

This is certainly not realistic (the amount of price increase). It's nice to have the oil crisis modeled, it's just too much

I've bought MAZ heavy trucks for 100k a piece to take advantage of this quickly and they turn 300k profit every round they make, so...

Fuel was around 6000 USD / t, that is around 4,8 USD / liter....

My republic is happy, getting filthy rich because of this. Problem is, it looks unrealistic.

Oh, sorry; I got the impression it started rising, got high values and would lower again when you exported more and more. My bad. If it did so, it could be dangerous having your republic addicted on oil for the day prices would lower (especially if the game had a decay/maintenance mechanic).

[Airfoil]

Publicado originalmente por GoRun:

How much in Rubels? Usually $ is stable for 60years

Peak was around 7000 rubel / t, not much difference to dollar price.

[GoRun]

That is strange. Do you have global events on? What is fuel bitumen price? 50k 70k?

[Airfoil]

Publicado originalmente por Deco Boladasso:

Publicado originalmente por Airfoil:

I just started exporting, after noticing the extreme prices.

This is certainly not realistic (the amount of price increase). It's nice to have the oil crisis modeled, it's just too much

I've bought MAZ heavy trucks for 100k a piece to take advantage of this quickly and they turn 300k profit every round they make, so...

Fuel was around 6000 USD / t, that is around 4,8 USD / liter....

My republic is happy, getting filthy rich because of this. Problem is, it looks unrealistic.

Oh, sorry; I got the impression it started rising, got high values and would lower again when you exported more and more. My bad. If it did so, it could be dangerous having your republic addicted on oil for the day prices would lower (especially if the game had a decay/maintenance mechanic).

Oil price is decreasing slowly it seems, but still quite extreme:

Overall I exported 15000 tonnes of oil for around 40 million rubles and now current price has decreased to around 2200 rubles/t (still twice as expensive as steel)