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Edit: I stand corrected.
You pretty much have to be eyes on 100% of the time from start of hunt to end to be 100% sure it is or isn't an obake. If you have to break line of sight, or the hunt begins out of line of sight, etc, then you risk missing the only guaranteed blink and then bad RNG can just rail you.
The way the Obake shapeshift works is (at least according to observation by people who are very determined to crack all the game's secrets; they might be wrong) actually not RNG, but instead takes place on specific flickers (roughly every 1 in 13, although it varies; confirmed timings are the 12th, 27th, 39th, 54th, 62nd, 80th, 105th, 120th, and 132nd flickers). It runs through each model of its gender as part of a repeating list, which persists between hunts: for example with female ghosts, the shapeshift order is always toothy ghost-faced child -> old lady with sickle -> patient 7/pyjama girl -> the other lady -> repeat.
The ghost CAN shapeshift into itself as part of this, in which it'll do a weird, janky posture reset, which you'll need to know to look out for to identify. This is easier to spot for child ghosts from my experience, since they have a wider range of postures and when they flicker they always reset to standing, but adult ghosts can be trickier if you don't know what to look for.
Respect that you admitted your fault. Rare to see these days. Good on you, my friend.
As a result... you basically get Obakes that can only change into the seasonal model they've been using... because it's literally the only option. It's annoying... but thankfully just a temporary problem.
I realized in one playthrough a player mentioned it can change it's weapon instead of the it's body form which counts as a Obake. I only had one match and I am not 100% true but that would make it very tricky to see indeed.
Weapons are part of the model, so they're changing depending on the model it changes into.
I get this is a bit of a necro post but people need to be aware of this tid bit. There's no rule in game where the ghost will shape shift only when someone is looking. If you're on Willow, ghost room is basement and you are waiting in the kitchen. The ghost has that whole span from where it starts hunting to the basement door where it will be blinking and rolling for that shape shift.
Depending on difficulty it could spend half the hunt or more just working it's way out of the basement to you. Blinking that whole time. So attempting a loop to get that shape shift isn't always the for sure way to figure it out.
It's why I hate no evidence runs because you have to waste so much time puzzling every little thing out and all it takes is one shape shift blink where it's around a corner from you to leave you wondering if it's a Mare or a Yurei since you didn't see the shape shift. Then you spend forever flipping a switch while someone stares at a door outside of the hunt only to get double murked, find out it was Obake and then rage about not getting a shape shift during any of the three previous hunts.
Well I didn't confirm the Obake then another player did and we literally got a Obake so that is a thing.
obviously the wiki could be wrong, however.
1) have you been watching it each hunt, for the full duration? blinks, according to the wiki, take place on the 12th, 27th, 39th, 54th, 62nd, 80th, 105th, 120th, and 132nd blinks of a hunt.
2) when you HAVE watched it, have you been a ghost? dead players cannot see obakes shapeshift, so this may be why.