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Obviously an Oni being less active is quite unusual, but it always depends on the circumstances and i usually don't use soft evidence as a way to determine a ghost, unless i see a good reason to leave early.
Evidence is always going to be the primary way to figure out ghosts, and in the case of being narrowed down to Oni/Shade.... if you're playing on reduced evidence, forcing a hunt and looping the ghost for a bit is far more reliable as the Oni does not like staying invisible for very long during a hunt. Alternatively, you could see if it will try to hunt you while you're in the same room (a common Shade test)
Funnily enough, I was doing a weekly challenge a while back and had an extremely pissed off Demon. It used its ability 4 times to try to hunt me, burning all my crucifix uses in about 5 minutes. No ghost events, just straight ability uses while I was at full or near full sanity.
On the bright side the aggressive hunting at high sanity is a unique tell for a Demon. I get really happy when I discover the unique tells, especially when they are really early in the map and I am in a "farming XP" mood.