Rarity Chances from Weapon Cases

[Crosscade]

Hey all,

Just out of interest, I collated data from several weapon case opening videos online to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening a crate. I only recorded data from videos that had at least 5+ crates being opened, to remove the distortion effect from single case rare drop videos (i.e. you have no idea how many cases they opened to get that one rare drop).

After watching quite a few videos from different channels, and recording 347 drops, these are the results:

• Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 78.8% (287)
  
• Restricted (Purple) Drops: 16.2% (59)
  
• Classified (Pink) Drops: 2.5% (9)
  
• Covert (Orange) Drops: 1.6% (6)
  
• Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 0.8% (3)

There didn't really appear to be any leaning towards StatTrack on any rarity. Of the 364 drops, 29 of them (8.0%) had StatTrack.

The two lower rarities, Consumer (White) and Industrial (Light Blue) only drop from in game drops.

Within each rarity, there didn't appear to be any major weighting, with each weapon dropping a similar amount. The only exception to this was the Galil DDPAT which seemed to be about 50% to 100% more likely to drop than the other Restricted. This is likely just an outlier effect.

There may also be too many Coverts or too few Classifieds in my numbers. Only one video showed a Classifed Deagle Hypnotic dropping but there were 5 Covert AWP Lightning Strikes drops, so these percentages could be out a bit.

Obviously these numbers will not be exact, but given the sample size I believe they should give a pretty good insight into the drop rarity and worth.

If I had to take a guess on the actual numbers, I would assume 79% Mil-Spec, 16.5% Restricted, 2.5% Classified, 1.5% Covert and 0.5% Ultra Rare, and a 8% StatTrack Chance.

I didn't look into the condition of the weapons (Battle-Scarred to Factory New) as that was not readily available from the videos, and wasn't the primary reason for my investigation.

[Rogerinho]

Last update 18/04.

[Ohsahi]

I recently had to do a Math project about Gambling, and had to include an example relevant to me. Thanks for the statistics on CS:GO drops XD

[Wheat1n]

Okay so while this is good work the evidence is also false, If you notice most csgo openings include the people getting knives.
Watch a livestream for better results.

[pinkb33sT]

over $870 spent for a chance at 3 good knives, nice

[\S-T-E-A-M-Y/]

I GOT A DAMN FUEL INJECTOR!!!!!!!!!

[\S-T-E-A-M-Y/]

FIRST CASE

[super saiyan daniel]

i eat cs go skins 4 breakfast 1v1 me

[Cilder]

Ty dude

[Ciganinho]

ive opened 2 new cases and i got a m4 decimator and a staattrack usp neo noir mw i think im very lucky as well xD

[sthankszy]

boi

[Francesca]

lol i opened 1 case = 1 knife

[super saiyan daniel]

Originally posted by SteKarN:

lol i opened 1 case = 1 knife

Fake, 1 case gets you at least 65 knives per case

[Havoc]

Rip never opening a case again

[Above]

thanks alot been looking for this

[32x32 Riker jpeg]

Originally posted by Crosscade:

After watching quite a few videos from different channels, and recording 347 drops, these are the results:

• Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 78.8% (287)
  
• Restricted (Purple) Drops: 16.2% (59)
  
• Classified (Pink) Drops: 2.5% (9)
  
• Covert (Orange) Drops: 1.6% (6)
  
• Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 0.8% (3)

Nah, it's more like

• Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 99.9%
  
• Restricted (Purple) Drops: 0.01%
  
• Classified (Pink) Drops: 0.001%
  
• Covert (Orange) Drops: 0.0001%
  
• Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 0.00001%