Rarity Chances from Weapon Cases

[Crosscade]

Hey all,

Just out of interest, I collated data from several weapon case opening videos online to determine what kinds of chances you actually have to get something good when opening a crate. I only recorded data from videos that had at least 5+ crates being opened, to remove the distortion effect from single case rare drop videos (i.e. you have no idea how many cases they opened to get that one rare drop).

After watching quite a few videos from different channels, and recording 347 drops, these are the results:

• Mil-spec (Blue) Drops: 78.8% (287)
  
• Restricted (Purple) Drops: 16.2% (59)
  
• Classified (Pink) Drops: 2.5% (9)
  
• Covert (Orange) Drops: 1.6% (6)
  
• Exceedingly Rare (Yellow) Drops: 0.8% (3)

There didn't really appear to be any leaning towards StatTrack on any rarity. Of the 364 drops, 29 of them (8.0%) had StatTrack.

The two lower rarities, Consumer (White) and Industrial (Light Blue) only drop from in game drops.

Within each rarity, there didn't appear to be any major weighting, with each weapon dropping a similar amount. The only exception to this was the Galil DDPAT which seemed to be about 50% to 100% more likely to drop than the other Restricted. This is likely just an outlier effect.

There may also be too many Coverts or too few Classifieds in my numbers. Only one video showed a Classifed Deagle Hypnotic dropping but there were 5 Covert AWP Lightning Strikes drops, so these percentages could be out a bit.

Obviously these numbers will not be exact, but given the sample size I believe they should give a pretty good insight into the drop rarity and worth.

If I had to take a guess on the actual numbers, I would assume 79% Mil-Spec, 16.5% Restricted, 2.5% Classified, 1.5% Covert and 0.5% Ultra Rare, and a 8% StatTrack Chance.

I didn't look into the condition of the weapons (Battle-Scarred to Factory New) as that was not readily available from the videos, and wasn't the primary reason for my investigation.

[Supernovato]

Nice, thanks a lot.

[Æ]

This is some amazing work. Thanks for the insight.

[Mattster]

thanks

[Crosscade]

Just to note, there also didn't appear to be any significant changes in the rarity percentages when comparing the CS:GO Cases vs the eSports Cases.

[Dunno]

been looking for the percentages thanks

[Schu]

Good job!

[僕の名前 (仮)]

I see skulls MP7 and Momento Mag-7 in most people's inv, asumming it's most dropped guns ever.

[cG. KCIV]

nice so basically sell the cases and buy your skins

[Vitdom]

I hope they make new crates soon.

[Æ]

Originally posted by KCIV:

nice so basically sell the cases and buy your skins

Pretty much, I sell some decent stuff, and buy whatever skins I want.
You are only really opening cases for awp's, stattraks, and knives.

[golden knight]

i opened 3 cases so far 1 aug wings (blue)
1 galil orange dopat (purple)
1 glock dragon tatoo (purple)
i gusse im lucky so far

[ShinDigPig]

4 cases, 2 AUG wings and 2 FAMAS Doomkitty -.-

[Æ]

Originally posted by golden knight:

i opened 3 cases so far 1 aug wings (blue)
1 galil orange dopat (purple)
1 glock dragon tatoo (purple)
i gusse im lucky so far

Yup, thats pretty good

[Schu]

Ive opened 2 crates. Only one AUG Wings and 1 Doomkitty FAMAS.

[SentientHAL]

What rarity is grey? Cause that's what my Lichen Dashed SSG 08 is.