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if you use all M4A1 knights then you will def get one but the issue whit that is the fact that knights cost so much money
alot of people use 1 knight and the rest are cheaper purples like shotguns and such.
The most popular methoid is 1 knight 9 Nova Antique's
This methoid has a chance of weilding a Awp asimovv/AUG chamelon and the Dragonlore.
But these chances are less for the dragonlore but still possible that you dont lose so much you got 2/3 chances to get a good skin the other chance you are taking a huge hit whit the AUG>
Each Knight you have in teh trade up = 10% chance for dragonlore to drop.
5 knights = 50% chance for dragonlore all 10 = 100%
The M4 Knight is the only thing that can change into one, so you MUST use at least 1 to get a chance at a Dragon Lore, each additional one you put into the contract is an extra +10% chance.