Chroma Case research (258 cases)

[Nox'z]

Today I have done Chroma Case research. I have watched some case opening videos (only videos like 100x Chroma Case opening) and wrote down every single skin to bring you (kind of) acurate statistics. I have counted skins, rarities and stattraks. Red and knives stats would need more cases (above 1000) to be really acurate.

Results:
209x Blue (81.0%)
37x Purple (14.3%)
9x Pink (3.5%)
1x Red (0.38%)
2x Gold (0.76%)

Rarity Blue:
48x Catacombs (23.0%)
45x Quicksilver (21.5%)
40x Deadly poison (19.1%)
39x Grotto (18.7%)
35x System Lock (17.2%)
*I would say that each have same chance

Rarity Purple:
14x Malachite (37.8%)
9x Urban Shock (24,3%)
7x Naga (18.9%)
7x Serenity (18.9%)
*Is chance to get Malachite really higher?

Rarity Pink:
5x Muertos
3x Cartel
1x Dragon King
*I wouldn't draw any conclusions out of so small amount of "pinks"

Rarity Red:
Man-o'-war

Rarity Gold:
Ultraviolet (Gut)
Damascus Steel (M9)

StatTrak:
29x StatTrak skins (11.2%)

Videos used:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYUVnMq3n6c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKNTfMolWMk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvlEBx0eJSs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K48C41awV3I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJdny0wohwA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B50u3keAqx0

[RIBBED FOR PLEASURE]

did you get ethics approval to do this research? and has it been peer reviewed?

[great]

wow.

[Nox'z]

Originally posted by GRILL(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻┻:

did you get ethics approval to do this research? and has it been peer reviewed?

I was just bored, so I did it.

[Pai Profeta]

Overall win/loss ratio in terms of money?

[Nox'z]

From my research you win approximately 1.88€ per case (If you get 2 knifes from 250 cases). But I think that odds to get good knife (above 200€) are lower than 0.38%.
Key + case are currently 3€ so income/outcome is 0.63 (according to my data and calculations).

[Boggo Blin]

Quite lucky to get 2 knives wow

[♪ Dready ♫]

It's nice of you to do that, sadly those statistics are based on a sample way too small to be realistically accepted as representing the stats of the drop rates. It gives a rough idea though. To get a real idea you would probably need 5000 cases +

[Nox'z]

Yeah, there were already done some of these "researches". There are not enough Chroma cases opening videos to get really accurate results. Now imagine, how many cases would you need to get Chroma case knife oddities. If I won't limit myself to Chromas, it would be more accurate. But I think they are really just same as other cases chances.
Here is 2000+ research: http://www.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensive/comments/228117/new_2000_case_opening_study

[Pai Profeta]

It would be cool if valve could make this results public in the API (every case opening) so programmers could use a data sample of like 20000 cases and make a simple program to calculate odds, it's not that hard i could probably pull it off and i'm still in my second semester, but unfortunately cs:go API is lackluster.

Anyway the chances must be so low that they don't want people to see it

[Nox'z]

Considering how much for example StatTrak Karambit CW FN is worth, odds must be verrry low. If odds would be shown in API, nobody would probably open anything after seeing it.