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Therefore two choices:
1) buy the skin that you like
2) if you want to try your luck open cases - if you hit the first "big one" sell it and never open cases again. That's quite your only chance your outcome is positive - and also that one is quite small.
If you want to open cases because it is fun, NOT because you "can" make profit, then open cases.
make sure you always get 10x of the SAME ITEM, exactly the same
open skins