M4-Knight Trade up contract

[76561193728474436]

HI, i wanna share my thoughts with you. Maybe you can tell me if it makes sense.
SO:
STEP1: Buy 5 MP9 Dark Ages (2,5 - 3€)--> 15€ + 5 other cheap guns
-->50% chance for DEAGLE-Handcannon or CZ-Chalize
(hopefully i get good drop every time)

STEP2: Do this 6 times--> 6x15€ + the cheap guns for trade up
-->90-100€

(If everything goes right, i will have 5-6 Handcanons or 5-6 Chalize, or mixed up=

STEP3: Trade them up for M4-Knight--> 50% Chance... 50%!
If it works i would have spend 120 € for a KNIGHT( Worth more than 200€)

Senseless?
What do you think?
And which guns should i put inside the Trade up contract beside?

SRY FOR ENGLISH

[Darkknight -e-]

I'm not sure if it's 50% chance. Especially if you have to do it multiple times. It decreases your chance exponentially.

[76561193728474436]

Originally posted by Darkknight -e-:

I'm not sure if it's 50% chance. Especially if you have to do it multiple times. It decreases your chance exponentially.

Its 50%. With 6 guns its 60%

Try it:
http://convars.com/tradeup/

[Darkknight -e-]

It's only worth it if it's 100%. You can lose a lot of money with 50/50.

Each trade up is 50% but the odds go down. Because 6 good drops in a row is highly unlikely.

Like roulette if you take out the greens. You may bet on black. And it may be 50/50. But the chances of hitting black 6 times in a row is unlikely.

[76561193728474436]

Hmm yea, theres a risk. But its not really 50/50
Its 50/10/3 etc. Because i will put in 5 different guns aside of the Chalize(HandCanon).
Or should i buy 5 Knights and trade up for Dlore? :D Or just buy nothing

[Darkknight -e-]

Just buy a Dlore from Opskins. 100% guarantee. Process is time consuming though.

Only if you have a lot of disposable income. But honestly. Pixels are never worth it.

[XGm negao]

remember, it is 25% chance to a deagle, 25% chance to a cz75, so, the another weapons have a total of 50% of chance, if you put five same weapons wich collection has only 1 restrict weapon to get, remember, it will be 25% chance to deagle, 25% chance to cz and 50% chance to another weapon. it is really easy to make the "another weapon"

[XGm negao]

just dont trust so much in the % chances... i have made a lot of trades with 80% chance, and i have got the 20% chance collection