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I think it has something to do with the fact that the SG 553 Bulldozer FN seems to be capped at ~0.08 float rather than the usual 0.0 float cap.
So maybe this specific trade up can be a random number between 0.08 - 0.15 when it's normally a random number between 0.00 and 0.07.
I know that a few MP7s were close to Minimal Wear, like 0.065 float.
Anyway, it sucks. FN is 20€ above MW.
Sometimes your lucky
This is not true. People collect skins with high float values to assure that they get high float values in their trade up contracts. Their is a random element but only within a certain limit depending on the skins you use. Edit: Actually no random element. See few posts below.
Look at this video for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksNnHDhMzpI
Thanks
Ok this is Trilluxe video which explains everything. As I suspected it happened because of the float cap of the Bulldozer skin at ~0.08. The float range of the skin is between 1.0 and 0.08, rather than 1.0 and 0.00.
That's why an FN skin of the MP7 Full Stop (which has a 1.0 -0.0 float range) can be seen as MW on the smaller scale from 0.08 to 1.0.
If you don't understand what I'm talking about, watch the video. He explains it more in depth. This only happens in special trade ups like this.
Edit: It's not random at all. It follows an exact formula and you can determine the exact float value you'll get before the contract. Good to know indeed.
(maxfloat - minfloat) x averagefloatinput + minfloat
according to that, it's possible to get a mw skin out of 10 FN skins, if the average float of the FN skin input is quite high. It's also possible to get FN skins with 10 mw low float skins input. It's complicated. You can look it up on YouTube.
Yeah, according to that formula (if I used it correctly), I would need 10x MP7s with a maximum float of 0.012. That's basically impossible. The Mp7 Whiteout FN which is worth a fortune has the same barriers regarding trade up contracts as the SG 553 Bulldozer it seems.
By the way, do maxfloat and minfloat of the skins you use for the trade up contract don't matter at all? Only the maxfloat and minfloat of the skin you want to get?