"Something is wrong with the Armory Pass"

[N.P.A]

To understand why I came to this opinion, I have to talk a little about probabilities.

The probability of winning the things you want is 6.3%

That means that the probability of not getting the thing is 93.7%

(We are talking about the "Sports and Leisure" collection here)

But why do I have to talk about probabilities?

The probability of me winning the M4 from the above-mentioned collection is higher than, let's be funny, winning the same thing 4 times (0.0244%)

But that happened to me 4 times with the Farmas Tarnmantel and 3 times with the Tec-9 (0.39%)

Has it happened to you or am I just schizo?

[Vault Hunter 101]

Where did you got this data from?

I can say too

The chance to get item you want is 0.00000001% so you better off buying off market

[Tah_NoRagePlz]

i unboxed 3 times the pp bizon , 2 times tec 9 and i had to do a tradeup for the ♥♥♥♥ ssg. it's a total scam you have to buy again a pass

[N.P.A]

Originally posted by Vault Hunter 101:

Where did you got this data from?

I can say too

The chance to get item you want is 0.00000001% so you better off buying off market

The age limit for CSGO is 18 years old.

the probability formula:

P = 1/n

[N.P.A]

Originally posted by Tah_NoRagePlz:

i unboxed 3 times the pp bizon , 2 times tec 9 and i had to do a tradeup for the ♥♥♥♥ ssg. it's a total scam you have to buy again a pass

I'll get the pass again and try my luck with the desert eagle
Who knows, maybe I'll get the M4 4 times with my luck?

[Hamless Hog]

Originally posted by N.P.A:

Originally posted by Tah_NoRagePlz:

i unboxed 3 times the pp bizon , 2 times tec 9 and i had to do a tradeup for the ♥♥♥♥ ssg. it's a total scam you have to buy again a pass

I'll get the pass again and try my luck with the desert eagle
Who knows, maybe I'll get the M4 4 times with my luck?

Wait what? How have you been so lucky?

[Vault Hunter 101]

Originally posted by N.P.A:

Originally posted by Vault Hunter 101:

Where did you got this data from?

I can say too

The chance to get item you want is 0.00000001% so you better off buying off market

The age limit for CSGO is 18 years old.

the probability formula:

P = 1/n

That makes no sense, each item has a different drop chance based on rarity. You can't just bundle them together

[N.P.A]

Originally posted by Vault Hunter 101:

Originally posted by N.P.A:

The age limit for CSGO is 18 years old.

the probability formula:

P = 1/n

That makes no sense, each item has a different drop chance based on rarity. You can't just bundle them together

good point but since the weapon grades for armoury pass are not public it makes little sense to include them in the calculation. but let´s be funny:
source: {LINK ENTFERNT}

Industrial Grade (light-blue) – 15.97% chance
Mil-Spec (dark-blue) – 3.33% chance
Restricted (purple) – 0.66% chance
Classified (pink) – 0.13% chance
Covert (red) – 0.027% chance

P=0.1597×0.1597×0.1597 = 0.004074 = 0.41% (Tec-9 Tiger Stencil)
P=0.1597×0.1597×0.1597×0.1597= 0.000649 = 0,0649% (FAMAS Half Sleeve)

[skOsH♥]

Originally posted by N.P.A:

To understand why I came to this opinion, I have to talk a little about probabilities.

The probability of winning the things you want is 6.3%

That means that the probability of not getting the thing is 93.7%

(We are talking about the "Sports and Leisure" collection here)

But why do I have to talk about probabilities?

The probability of me winning the M4 from the above-mentioned collection is higher than, let's be funny, winning the same thing 4 times (0.0244%)

But that happened to me 4 times with the Farmas Tarnmantel and 3 times with the Tec-9 (0.39%)

Has it happened to you or am I just schizo?

Probability with replacement.

You can open 1000 cases if you'd like, for instance, and despite opening up 1000 of them, you still have about a 0.3% chance of getting a gold, even if you opened 500 of them in a row. Still the same %.

That is why you ended up with duplicates. This happens all the time

[Vault Hunter 101]

Originally posted by N.P.A:

Originally posted by Vault Hunter 101:

That makes no sense, each item has a different drop chance based on rarity. You can't just bundle them together

good point but since the weapon grades for armoury pass are not public it makes little sense to include them in the calculation. but let´s be funny:
source: {LINK ENTFERNT}

Industrial Grade (light-blue) – 15.97% chance
Mil-Spec (dark-blue) – 3.33% chance
Restricted (purple) – 0.66% chance
Classified (pink) – 0.13% chance
Covert (red) – 0.027% chance

P=0.1597×0.1597×0.1597 = 0.004074 = 0.41% (Tec-9 Tiger Stencil)
P=0.1597×0.1597×0.1597×0.1597= 0.000649 = 0,0649% (FAMAS Half Sleeve)

Close but still not right.
There are multiple light blue skins, 6 skins so 1/6 to get it

So if you want to calculate getting same item three times in a row thats
0.1597 x 0.1597 x 0.1597 x 1/6 x 1/6 -> thats 0.0113%


for four times in a row it would be 0.000301%

so 3x famas in a row is less rare than a knife

[76561199528165742]

ye((9

[kony]

never open crates, it's way cheaper to just buy whatever crap you want on the market

[sv]

Originally posted by kony:

never open crates, it's way cheaper to just buy whatever crap you want on the market

sometimes u want to try for the knife. i aint paying 2500$ lol