Shangai Pick'ems discussion

[ag]

I would like to discuss the Pick'ems. Your input is highly appreciated, as I will also share my 2 cents.

I got 7 right in the opening stages. I didn't expect MIBR to go through, I guessed flyquest to go 0-3 and wildcard was a surprise. Instead of MIBR and Wildcard, I had Complexity and VP.

Now for the elimination stage, here is my pick'ems reasonings and tips:

3-0 G2 and Vitality
3-(1/2): Navi, Spirit, Mouz, Mongolz, Faze and Heroic
0-3: Wildcard and MIBR

First match-ups

• G2 x Mongolz: I truly believe G2 has the upperhand despite Mongolz previous performance, outplaying all opponents and going 3-0. It is true that G2 has some current criticisms regarding m0nesy underperforming, which could be explained by his allegation of an unspecified illness that he claims to be cured of.
  
• NAVI x Liquid: With certainty, NAVI is expected to win this match. They're a stronger team, and Liquid's 3-0 (which I also predicted correctly) was due to luck with convenient match-ups, while still maintaining mid performance against easy opponents. Furthermore, NAF's performance has been below expected, putting Liquid in an unfavorable position.
  
• Vitality x GL: Vitality has shown to be superior to gamer legion in every aspect, alongside being in a good phase.
  
• Spirit x Furia: Spirit. Furia has been inconsistent, besides being a weaker team than Spirit. Furia has alleged to not being performing well, which is an additional argument.
  
• Mouz x Pain: Mouz is a consistent team which is higher ranked compared to Pain, by a considerable margin.
  
• Faze x Wildcard: Personally, I am not a believer of Wildcard. This is a bias; however, the previous argument about Mouz vs Pain also applies here.
  
• Heroic x BIG: Heroic. BIG has been through a though major so far, not achieving a desirable outcome.
  
• 3Dmax x MIBR: 3Dmax. The same argument for Mouz vs Pain applies here.

Second match-ups

Most are intuitive and not so controversial, so I will be quick:

• G2 wins against 3Dmax
  
• NAVI wins against Heroic
  
• Vitality wins against Faze
  
• Spirit wins against Mouz (debatable)
  
• Mongolz wins against MIBR
  
• Liquid wins against BIG
  
• Gamer legion wins against Wildcard
  
• Furia wins against Pain (debatable)

Third match-ups

• I predict G2 wins against Spirit, with not much certainty
  
• Between NAVI and Vitality, both are equally reasonable; NAVI had more time to train due to their earlier elimination in the last major, and Vitality is on a good phase, while also always having a good time playing agaisn't NAVI. I'd go with Vitality
  
• Mouz beats Furia, no questions asked
  
• Faze probably wins against GL
  
• Heroic shouldn't have a hard time against Liquid
  
• Mongolz versus 3Dmax: I'm honestly not sure. I trusted the prediction of another 7 correct guesses first stage player, which was Mongolz.
  
• Pain looks in a better shape than MIBR, but this is debatable
  
• I expect BIG to win against Wildcard, as the only win by Wildcard that came as a surprise for me was against Passion UA, which BIG also beat.

Fourth match-ups

• NAVI x Mongolz: NAVI is expected to win
  
• Spirit x Heroic: Spirit. Heroic has been performing inconsistently

The next match-ups would be mostly irrelevant as the subsequent match-ups are quite unbalanced and every single one of them aligns towards my final predictions. Just in case, here is what I expect:

• Mouz x Faze: Mouz
  
• 3Dmax x BIG: 3Dmax
  
• Liquid x Pain: Pain
  
• GL x Furia: GL, but risky

Fifth match-ups notes

• BIG wouldn't win against Faze, Pain, Spirit, GL, Furia, Liquid or Heroic
  
• If Furia beat GL, they would play with 3DMax or BIG (if BIG won 3Dmax [unlikely]). If you think GL beats Furia, you should change GL with 3Dmax in the pick'ems
  
• If you believe Liquid beats Pain, and you believe (either spirit or heroic, whichever you thing won on the fourth) would lose to 3DMax, then switch (spirit or heroic) to 3Dmax

If you disagree with anything, please share why, so we can discuss this

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

I cant understand why so many say that Vitality and NaVi can't be both in the 3-0 slots?

"Because if they both get 2.0 they have to play against each other", but....

h t t p s : / / m a j o r s . i m / 2 4 s h a n g h a i

....I tried so many different constalations in that generator linked above and they NEVER play against each other... am I doing something wrong or is that statement just wrong?

[ag]

Originally posted by ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ:

I cant understand why so many say that Vitality and NaVi can't be both in the 3-0 slots?

"Because if they both get 2.0 they have to play against each other", but....

h t t p s : / / m a j o r s . i m / 2 4 s h a n g h a i

....I tried so many different constalations in that generator linked above and they NEVER play against each other... am I doing something wrong or is that statement just wrong?

I believe that is assuming G2, NaVi, Vitality and Spirit all goes 2-0

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

Originally posted by ๋ ama gatos:

Originally posted by ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ:

I cant understand why so many say that Vitality and NaVi can't be both in the 3-0 slots?

"Because if they both get 2.0 they have to play against each other", but....

h t t p s : / / m a j o r s . i m / 2 4 s h a n g h a i

....I tried so many different constalations in that generator linked above and they NEVER play against each other... am I doing something wrong or is that statement just wrong?

I believe that is assuming G2, NaVi, Vitality and Spirit all goes 2-0

Ah yes thank you... I did not try G2 winning against Mongolz ...lol ^^

But can G2 win against Mongolz? Sure they have m0NESY and NiKo, but my (global & very good playing) friend said, I quote:

"g2 playing with 4 players
snax is bot :D"

Mongolz are very good playing, don't they?

EDIT:
I watched around 12 youtube videos for this Elimination Stage pickem and after each video I got more confused than before ;((((

I don't know what to pick.

Some of the Videos I watched:

TrilluXe (5 correct in OS):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdKF9hPpDjg

Vince (7 correct in OS):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7WOdIFrsnI

NartOutHere (5 correct in OS):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9MCbie1bP8

Kobeyach (6 correct in OS)i:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0gqHBqaWGQ

CSTactics (4 correct in OS):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYBDwDtTjSE

[HaŦŦrick ✓ 🛠 🗽]

i really want to put Faze 0-3

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

This are my final picks, I guess:

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3377636620

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

Originally posted by ๋ ama gatos:

I would like to discuss the Pick'ems. Your input is highly appreciated, as I will also share my 2 cents.

...

3-0 G2 and Vitality
3-(1/2): Navi, Spirit, Mouz, Mongolz, Faze and Heroic
0-3: Wildcard and MIBR

First match-ups

• G2 x Mongolz: I truly believe G2 has the upperhand despite Mongolz previous performance, outplaying all opponents and going 3-0. It is true that G2 has some current criticisms regarding m0nesy underperforming, which could be explained by his allegation of an unspecified illness that he claims to be cured of.
  
• NAVI x Liquid: With certainty, NAVI is expected to win this match. They're a stronger team, and Liquid's 3-0 (which I also predicted correctly) was due to luck with convenient match-ups, while still maintaining mid performance against easy opponents. Furthermore, NAF's performance has been below expected, putting Liquid in an unfavorable position.
  is
  
  ...

1) Do you really think G2 can win against Mongolz? Actually there is only monesy and Niko and hunter that are good performing and monesy is not that well doing recently, is he?

2) It seems that majority is convinced that NaVi is still a strong team, but they are not the same team anymore that won all the Majors, right? Except for "b1t" there are complete new players ...no s1mple, no electronics etc. so are they really still that strong? That's what I am unsure about.... except "b1t" I don't know the other players ...although they have a player called "w0nderful" and his name is as wonderful as mine ^^ right? :D

[ag]

Originally posted by ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ:

1) Do you really think G2 can win against Mongolz? Actually there is only monesy and Niko and hunter that are good performing and monesy is not that well doing recently, is he?

2) It seems that majority is convinced that NaVi is still a strong team, but they are not the same team anymore that won all the Majors, right? Except for "b1t" there are complete new players ...no s1mple, no electronics etc. so are they really still that strong? That's what I am unsure about.... except "b1t" I don't know the other players ...although they have a player called "w0nderful" and his name is as wonderful as mine ^^ right? :D

I do truly believe G2 is stronger than Mongolz. However, being stronger doesn't mean they can beat anyone, that varies with play style and context. Looking at the past games, G2 has won twice against Mongolz and only lost once, with their most recent match being 2-0 for G2. I am pretty sure Mongolz won't 3-0, like many are saying.

G2 criticism is fair, but it is worth to say that in their most recent match against Mongolz they performed better than before on Ancient, which is a map they weren't playing well. However, it is worth mentioning that both matches in the 2-0 were close, ancient being 13-11 and inferno 16-13. In Anubis, I believe G2 would lose to Mongolz, still. That is up to you, but I hope I shed some light to it

Your second point is another reason why I believe they would win against Liquid and Heroic but lose to Vitality, getting through but not 3-0'ing. There is no denying they can outplay Liquid, they're not in their best shape

[TheLevelCap]

Originally posted by ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ:

I cant understand why so many say that Vitality and NaVi can't be both in the 3-0 slots?

"Because if they both get 2.0 they have to play against each other", but....

h t t p s : / / m a j o r s . i m / 2 4 s h a n g h a i

....I tried so many different constalations in that generator linked above and they NEVER play against each other... am I doing something wrong or is that statement just wrong?

If Wild Card wins Gamer Legion, it's enough to avoid the Navi vs Vitality match

My pick was basically every team on the left winning Round 1 and on Round 2 every team on the left winning except for Gamer Legion that loses to Wild card. Seems possible (unlikely but I'm known for my faith).

And Tbh I'm not changing this pickem bcoz I had 7 correct picks, I changed for what the majority of streamers and analists were saying and ended up with 4 correct picks.

[ag]

Originally posted by TheLevelCap:

If Wild Card wins Gamer Legion, it's enough to avoid the Navi vs Vitality match

Mind elaborating whether this can happen?

[TheLevelCap]

Originally posted by ๋ ama gatos:

Originally posted by TheLevelCap:

If Wild Card wins Gamer Legion, it's enough to avoid the Navi vs Vitality match

Mind elaborating whether this can happen?

I edited the comment elaborating.

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

Originally posted by TheLevelCap:

Originally posted by ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ:

I cant understand why so many say that Vitality and NaVi can't be both in the 3-0 slots?

"Because if they both get 2.0 they have to play against each other", but....

h t t p s : / / m a j o r s . i m / 2 4 s h a n g h a i

....I tried so many different constalations in that generator linked above and they NEVER play against each other... am I doing something wrong or is that statement just wrong?

If Wild Card wins Gamer Legion, it's enough to avoid the Navi vs Vitality match

My pick was basically every team on the left winning Round 1 and on Round 2 every team on the left winning except for Gamer Legion that loses to Wild card. Seems possible (unlikely but I'm known for my faith).

And Tbh I'm not changing this pickem bcoz I had 7 correct picks, I changed for what the majority of streamers and analists were saying and ended up with 4 correct picks.

Yeah that's why I try to evaluate what those "streamers and analists" really know and what they assume and also how much of their statements is wishful thinking over based knowledge. I try to understand what they are saying between the lines ^^

I got basically the picks of trilluxe, BUT his statements to "BIG" made it clear for me that this is wishful thinking of him thats why I switched it with Liquid and the statement about 3Dmax also seems not to be based on facts, that's why I switched it with mibr... but of course at the end there is also a lot of luck to consider - as the saying goes: "You can not count on luck, but luck counts" :)

[♛⁧Schultheiß]

I have almost the same picks. I have mouz for 3:0, and G2 as 3:1 / 3:2.
Also 3dmax as 0:3, because they are french.

[ωΘηÐ∈尺₷ŁΛƔξℛ]

Originally posted by Schultheiß:

Also 3dmax as 0:3, because they are french.

Because france never won a war? xD lol seems a legit reason xD

[vee]

3dmax vs mibr is a coin flip
of the three Brazilian teams Furia is the most likely to bomb out
Pain >= mibr >>> Furia

FaZe is washed. I think their time is up and they won't make it. I'll still have them in my 3:2/3:1 but I have no faith

[vee]

Originally posted by vee:

3dmax vs mibr is a coin flip
of the three Brazilian teams Furia is the most likely to bomb out
Pain >= mibr >>> Furia

FaZe is washed. I think their time is up and they won't make it. I'll still have them in my 3:2/3:1 but I have no faith

I regret voicing my concerns for faze. They're the best team in the world. They'll win the major. They're my pickem saviours! FAZE UP!!