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I definitely recommend purchasing
You should just really buy the knife you want, you're not guaranteed to get a knife no matter how many you open. (Personal experience but I've opened over 350 cases and never gotten one)
Opening cases is a hobby, not a way to get what you want.
Even if you did get a knife, the chances of it being one you want are so small and you'll probably not even profit.
So basically just buy the knife you want. Don't waste more on cases.
Yes I know it's POSSIBLE, but it's not PROBABLE.
It's gambling, some people get "lucky". Myself included my 5th ever case was a pair of gloves worth $1500 and I just started playing CS like a week prior and used my case drops to sell for funds on steam market to purchase the keys. But once again, it's not PROBABLE. For our outcomes, there's hundreds of other players who have opened hundreds of cases and only ever gotten blue's.
Don't give him false hope. Don't use your circumstances to taint the FACTS. That you're gambling with a 1 in 400 chance. No one here in their right mind is gambling on a game with a 0.26% chance of "winning". Anyone with a logical brain would tell you to gamble elsewhere as it's way more potentially profitable. Look at something like Blackjack where it's much more possible to profit.
The reason CS is so popular with case openings is most of the population are young kids who don't even realize it's gambling or even what they're doing, and/or they're spending their parents money. Then you have content creators who open hundreds to thousands a day off their streaming profits and show clips of the highlights to skew the odds to the viewer that it is much more likely to get something "good".