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You can prove this by simply clicking on the Inventory button before the roulette has stopped shuffeling and it will show you the weapon immediately. Also, someone refreshing your inventory on your profile will see the weapon long before the roulette has stopped rolling.
It's not predetermined, but determined in the moment you click on open the case. The animation is just camouflage for the RNG that worked it's magic before... Every case has the chance though to drop something good, albeit a very small chance.
Think of a box as a lottery ticket - it contains nothing but chances to win something. When that animation is shown a random number generator determines which item you get from a certain range of items. But the animation itself does not determine what you get.