if getting a knife is less than a 1 percent chance then how do people know people know u have to buy ~400 cases to get a knife

[Warren Buffet]

can someone explain the math? thanks

[.]

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200. opened cases should drop a rare item/knife. If it is 1% then you need 100 cases. Or is your question about something else?
Also it is statistical only, it doesn't mean your 100. case is going to be the knife, it can be the first one or 120. one. Statistically if someone buys 10 000 cases and the chance for getting a knife is 1%, he should get 100 knives.

[JrJet]

^ What Scream said but remember just because you're *statistically* supposed to get a knife doesn't guarantee one.

[Matthias]

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200. opened cases should drop a rare item/knife. If it is 1% then you need 100 cases. Or is your question about something else?
Also it is statistical only, it doesn't mean your 100. case is going to be the knife, it can be the first one or 120. one. Statistically if someone buys 10 000 cases and the chance for getting a knife is 1%, he should get 100 knives.

True, except the chance for a rare special item is around 0.26%.

[.]

Originally posted by ⚜⤥MegabytzZ | Matthias⤦⚜:

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200. opened cases should drop a rare item/knife. If it is 1% then you need 100 cases. Or is your question about something else?
Also it is statistical only, it doesn't mean your 100. case is going to be the knife, it can be the first one or 120. one. Statistically if someone buys 10 000 cases and the chance for getting a knife is 1%, he should get 100 knives.

True, except the chance for a rare special item is around 0.25% (0.01% more or less)

Yeah it was just easier to count with 1 and 0.5%

[Show-NO-MerCy]

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200. opened cases should drop a rare item/knife. If it is 1% then you need 100 cases. Or is your question about something else?
Also it is statistical only, it doesn't mean your 100. case is going to be the knife, it can be the first one or 120. one. Statistically if someone buys 10 000 cases and the chance for getting a knife is 1%, he should get 100 knives.

That are only stats !
You can buy 1000 cases and only have a return of 30€ skins on it.
It is way smarter to buy a knife from the market.
This way you know for sure what you get for the money :)
To open 1000 cases you need 1000 keys 2.50€ a key = 2500€ keys only !
You can buy alot of knives on the market for 2.500€ ( and the ones you want)

[dedose]

Originally posted by ⚜⤥MegabytzZ | Matthias⤦⚜:

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200. opened cases should drop a rare item/knife. If it is 1% then you need 100 cases. Or is your question about something else?
Also it is statistical only, it doesn't mean your 100. case is going to be the knife, it can be the first one or 120. one. Statistically if someone buys 10 000 cases and the chance for getting a knife is 1%, he should get 100 knives.

True, except the chance for a rare special item is around 0.24%.

you sure? im pretty sure it's around 1% (according to a reddit study sampling a ton of case openings). my source couldve just been lucky though, i just dont see anything that says it's that low

[Dicht007™ DiNase]

Originally posted by dedose:

Originally posted by ⚜⤥MegabytzZ | Matthias⤦⚜:

True, except the chance for a rare special item is around 0.24%.

you sure? im pretty sure it's around 1% (according to a reddit study sampling a ton of case openings). my source couldve just been lucky though, i just dont see anything that says it's that low

unboxing a knife/glove is 0.26% chance

covert afaik ~2.5-3% chance

[KokkoJustus]

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200.

The hcange to open a knife is about 0.26%, and while on average it means that for about each 400 cases opened 1 knife exists.

But if you were to buy 400 cases and opened them, you would have about 65% change to get a knife

[super swede]

Originally posted by KokkoJustus:

Originally posted by 𝕊𝔼ℂℝ𝔸𝕄:

If the chance for getting a knife is 0.5%, one should buy 200 cases to have a knife dropped. It is simple maths. 0.5% means that every 200.

The hcange to open a knife is about 0.26%, and while on average it means that for about each 400 cases opened 1 knife exists.

But if you were to buy 400 cases and opened them, you would have about 65% change to get a knife

technicly yes but then again chances are that you might as well get a knife in the cases you get ingame then buying them from the market

[KokkoJustus]

Originally posted by Old man John:

Originally posted by KokkoJustus:

The hcange to open a knife is about 0.26%, and while on average it means that for about each 400 cases opened 1 knife exists.

But if you were to buy 400 cases and opened them, you would have about 65% change to get a knife

technicly yes but then again chances are that you might as well get a knife in the cases you get ingame then buying them from the market

What does market and ingame drops has to do with anything in this thread?

[Klauß 🍔🍻]

Originally posted by dedose:

Originally posted by ⚜⤥MegabytzZ | Matthias⤦⚜:

True, except the chance for a rare special item is around 0.24%.

you sure? im pretty sure it's around 1% (according to

Valve had to release the percentages when they released Perfect World chinese CS:GO version.

Each higher tier has 1/5 of the lower tier, except Special Rare, which is 2/5. Also StatTrak or not is 1/5 chance.

If you open Excel and fiddle around a bit you find that Weapon Cases' lowest tier starts at 79.9237%, and Collections/Souvenir Packages start at 80.0051%. For a total of 100% through all tiers in a case.

With Special Rare you end up with 0.25575% for Knife/Gloves. With highest tier for Collections/Souvenir you end up with 0.0256%

List of percentages for tiers: https://imgur.com/WVLtQh5 (don't pay attention to Excels faboulus rounding error after tenth decimal point ^^)

[憤怒]

i spent more then 600 euros on a single "unboxing" and the most "expensive" skin i got was a purple m4 so yeah its a little bit of RNG

[NiCOLAS EL MAGNiFiCO]

Maths and statistics are great, but when it comes to individual chance for each box, you can open one case and get a knife, and you can open 1000 cases and not get one. I open maximum 5 cases a month, and the stuff I want I just buy from market when I can, it's way better.

[Warren Buffet]

if u spent 600 euro on cases, you bought around 240 cases, which is not enough for a knife i dont think, but you only got a purple? I think thats just bad luck, you shoulda got atleast 1 classified skin.

[YeahJustme]

Originally posted by 憤怒:

i spent more then 600 euros on a single "unboxing" and the most "expensive" skin i got was a purple m4 so yeah its a little bit of RNG

Unlucky.

You had 99.8% change to get atleast one red skin