What are the real odds of getting a rare item in CS:GO

[haha... balls]

Not just including CS:GO, but also including TF2, I have unboxed at least 300 crates / cases. I have only recieved two god-tier items, being an assimov and a strange festive rocket launcher. I have unboxed no other items worth more than the key to the case. My odds seem stacked against me, is there something I've been doing wrong? This is really frustrating because I'll send my friends a case and they'll unbox a pink, but then I'll unbox 4 and get only blues, and this happens often.

[Ministryl]

Blue – 100 items – 79.92%
Purple – 20 items – 15.98%
Pink – 4 items – 3.2%
Red – 0.8 items – 0.64%
Yellow – 0.32 items – 0.26%

[rage]

Originally posted by MINSTRYL:

Blue – 100 items – 79.92%
Purple – 20 items – 15.98%
Pink – 4 items – 3.2%
Red – 0.8 items – 0.64%
Yellow – 0.32 items – 0.26%

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

[haha... balls]

Originally posted by rage:

Originally posted by MINSTRYL:

Blue – 100 items – 79.92%
Purple – 20 items – 15.98%
Pink – 4 items – 3.2%
Red – 0.8 items – 0.64%
Yellow – 0.32 items – 0.26%

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

I figured but my point is that .7992^100 is a really low odds outcome. I have bought some purples, but getting 1 red and only blues still seems stacked :(

[Frog.]

Originally posted by Rigo:

Originally posted by rage:

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

I figured but my point is that .7992^100 is a really low odds outcome. I have bought some purples, but getting 1 red and only blues still seems stacked :(

Just buy from community matket. Literally gambling your money is not worth it.

[Hamsterpeek]

Originally posted by rage:

Originally posted by MINSTRYL:

Blue – 100 items – 79.92%
Purple – 20 items – 15.98%
Pink – 4 items – 3.2%
Red – 0.8 items – 0.64%
Yellow – 0.32 items – 0.26%

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

Yes and no. The droprate stays the same but the chance increases.
It's like throwing a dice. With one throw it's unlikely to get a 6 but the more you throw the more likely it gets to get a 6.

@OP
Opening cases is ridiclious. Watch this video for more explanation:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a-FdnfZhguw

[rage]

Originally posted by r0mand:

Originally posted by rage:

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

Yes and no. The droprate stays the same but the chance increases.
It's like throwing a dice. With one throw it's unlikely to get a 6 but the more you throw the more likely it gets to get a 6.

@OP
Opening cases is ridiclious. Watch this video for more explanation:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a-FdnfZhguw

yeah ofc opening more boxes increases your chance but the chance never changes.

[Ministryl]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNIjgoVMxSA

here's another good video about CSGO case odds.

[♡]

smecher

[Fuerst Fux]

Originally posted by r0mand:

Yes and no. The droprate stays the same but the chance increases.
It's like throwing a dice. With one throw it's unlikely to get a 6 but the more you throw the more likely it gets to get a 6.

Originally posted by rage:

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

The same applies to dice. The chance to get a six are always the same.

[Th1ef 2.0 - RIP]

It is random algorithm. There's no trick

[ithie]

If you got a 6 sided die your chances getting the 6 is ONLY EVER increases if you exclude the previous results you get by throwing the die. So in a real life situation it will always be a 1/6 = 16.7% chance of gettin the 6 side up.

This logic is the same for loot crates. Your chances of getting a knife is still low as hell at ~0.26%, and since crates are a static variable your chances are still the same low 0.26% chance for every crate you open to be a knife. This is why gambling still is profitable for those who makes money on it and the common masses believe they soon ought to cash in because they think their chances increases the more they throw their money at them.

[Hamsterpeek]

Originally posted by Fuerst Fux:

Originally posted by r0mand:

Yes and no. The droprate stays the same but the chance increases.
It's like throwing a dice. With one throw it's unlikely to get a 6 but the more you throw the more likely it gets to get a 6.

Originally posted by rage:

These never change even when opening more boxes thought I'll point that out.

The same applies to dice. The chance to get a six are always the same.

You don't understand it but whatever. No here to teach you something about statistics.

[Fuerst Fux]

Originally posted by r0mand:

Originally posted by Fuerst Fux:

The same applies to dice. The chance to get a six are always the same.

You don't understand it but whatever. No here to teach you something about statistics.

Apparently you don't. For example the overall chance of throwing at least one six in six throws is about 66,51 %. But for every single throw the chance of throwing a six is about 16,67 %, no matter if you threw the dice 5 times before and did not get a six.

In conclusion: if you do a lot of throws (open a lot of cases) your overall chance of getting a six (a pink/red/yellow skin) can become fairly good, but considering the single throw (case opening) they never "get more likely".

[Neil]

It makes me want to buy cases lol

[rage]

Originally posted by r0mand:

Originally posted by Fuerst Fux:

Apparently you don't. For example the overall chance of throwing at least one six in six throws is about 66,51 %. But for every single throw the chance of throwing a six is about 16,67 %, no matter if you threw the dice 5 times before and did not get a six.

In conclusion: if you do a lot of throws (open a lot of cases) your overall chance of getting a six (a pink/red/yellow skin) can become fairly good, but considering the single throw (case opening) they never "get more likely".

It's so funny when I read people with no education about statistics talking like that. xDD Jesus.

Originally posted by Fuerst Fux:

But for every single throw the chance of throwing a six is about 16,67 %, no matter if you threw the dice 5 times before and did not get a six.

It doesn't matter what you did in the past, it matters what is in the future! Jesus is it so freaking hard to understand?

Imagine having no clue about probability calculation and still write this nonsense. How ignorant can one person be that he lacks this simple common sense and basic understanding of math/statistics/probability calculation. Imagine thinking that your chance of rolling a 6 is as high when you have two instead of one chance, LOL.

Instant block. Can't stand those people.

I'd block him too but icbf.