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I've come across old discussions with people saying the butterfly would fall down past the karambit in price (as opposed to remaining equal in value).
And obviously, that's barely just the case, because butterfly is second only to the karambit in price, and by a very small amount. Not that far off from when it was first released.
The item price is extremely fragile. It is dangerous to get one today.
Reasons :
- Collector's force buy
The AK-47 | Neon Rider, for example, stays at an overpriced value of $152 USD for over 3 months. Collectors think that it's now stable and bought them at mid October. The community is smart. They learn that the whales have strike, it's no point to wait any longer, and a competitive price happened. In just 10 days, the price was dropped to $75 USD. For Stiletto and other new knives, they have been waiting for the whales.
- Life after opskin
Personally, I believe valve released new knives after closing opskins for a reason. It is to help recover the economy of the existing knife market. Many knives have dropped tremendously in value since opskin's closure because knives were "gambling rewards" to encourage betting of cheaper skins. With gambling sites gone, traders suffered as their knives lose value.
The new knives act as a temporary substitute for that desire among traders. The desire is back and the expensive price is back. However, it can be only a matter of time before the overpriced new knives lose it's unique charisma to join the ranks of a regular knife. When that happens, all knives can drop in value.
- Possibly new 2019 skin / case for coming tournament
New skin attraction could meant a depreciation of old skins. Those might appear in just a few more weeks before the tournament.
- Nov/Dec sales
Those can reduce market price of CSGO skins because it's better to sell a few skins, buy a new game and join the online sensation.
If you're getting a Stiletto that is in a range of $100-$200, you should be safe because a knife will not fall below that value. If it's $500 - $1000 (e.g. Stiletto Fade), it is fragile and it is best to exercise caution.
Okay, thank you. That's quite helpful. The one's I had been looking at indeed were $100-$200.