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Your second guess is correct. Only the people who have spent $15 can get the chance of one of these drops. If you don't get it the first time through you're going to have to pay to get more chances for drops.
There are a lot of reasons...
Drop rates are low, the supply is limited, the skins are absolutely new to the game and most importantly, they are very desirable to most of the players...!!
All coverts doesn't have same drop rate btw...