How often do knives drop?

[Youtube: BoyDilly]

Just opened 4 crates and got 4 different skins each worth of 4-12 cents. How many crates on average do you need to open to get something really rare like gloves or knives or even rare ak skin?

[KokkoJustus]

Well, each case have a 0.26% change to get a yellow item.

And red skins are about 2%

[Youtube: BoyDilly]

Originally posted by KokkoJustus:

Well, each case have a 0.26% change to get a yellow item.

And red skins are about 2%

how many crates do you need to open on average to experience those 2 %?

[Pettsson]

I have opened about 900 cases and i've gotten 3 knives and 1 pair of gloves so far.

[.Newbiedienloan.]

Originally posted by BoyDilly:

Originally posted by KokkoJustus:

Well, each case have a 0.26% change to get a yellow item.

And red skins are about 2%

how many crates do you need to open on average to experience those 2 %?

At least 300 cases, and even with that there are still chance that you can open 0 knife.

[American Dad]

i open 400 and has no single yellow

[Hamsterpeek]

Chance of getting a skin from each rarity:
Mil-spec: 79.92%
Restricted: 15.98%
Classified: 3.2%
Covert: 0.64%
Knife/Glove: 0.26%

Chance to get one from each rarity after 250 cases:
Formular: 1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
-> x = Chance and y = Number of tries

Mil-spec: 100%
Restricted: 99,999999999999999988%
Classified: 99,97%
Covert: 79.9%
Knife/Glove: 47,8%

As you can see yourself it's likely to get a covert skin after 250 cases, but still unlikely to get a knife/glove.

Either way. Opening cases isn't worth it. Even when you would get a knife it doesn't mean that it's a good knife. Maybe it's just a gut knife? And maybe a bad skin? And maybe even low wear? So it's not a 3k euro but a 70 euro knife.

[cSg|mc-Hotsauce]

This is what we know...

https://www.pcgamesn.com/counter-strike-global-offensive/csgo- case- odds

It thinks it is a scam case site. Remove spaces.

[Buffoon]

Thats not chance to get one by the way thats chance to get atleast one... To calculate chance of getting exactly one you need to use combinatorics... Ei

[Hamsterpeek]

Originally posted by Buffoon:

Thats not chance to get one by the way thats chance to get atleast one... To calculate chance of getting exactly one you need to use combinatorics... Ei

I copy pasted my comment out of another thread where someone asked how high the chance is to get a knife after 250 cases. I use that here to show how low the odds actually are because opening 250 cases is already ridiclious and even then the chance that you got a knife is just 47,8%.

[Buffoon]

Yea but that 47.8 includes Case when u open 250 knives from those 250 boxes

[Hamsterpeek]

Originally posted by Buffoon:

Yea but that 47.8 includes Case when u open 250 knives from those 250 boxes

That calculation means that a person opens 250 cases and each time has the chance of getting a knife for 0.26%. The chance of getting a knife increases each time. It doesn't double it.

Dices are a good example aswell. Chance of getting a 6 is 1/6 = 16,667%. The chance of getting a 6 out of two tries is 30.56%. = 1 - ( ( 1 - 0.1667 ) ^ 2 )

Edit:

Originally posted by KokkoJustus:

What?

That 47.8% is the change to obtain a knife from opening 250 cases

Exactly.

[jurj]

.

[Buffoon]

Lol thats chance to get atleast 1 knife... Also that is chance to Roll atleast 1 Time 6 when u first Roll can be 6 or 2 nd Roll or both Roll can be 6 there be 3 ways u can Roll 6 and one is when u roll 2x 6... Same with 250 cases when u open them u can get 197 knives and that 47.8% includes that happening... Chance to get 6 once Rollin 2 Times dice? U can roll 1st Time with dice 1/6 ways 2nd 5/6 ways or 1st dice 5/6 ways and 2nd 1/6 ways... If u roll 2x6 in row throwing 1 dice 1st throw and 2nd throw 6 that 30.6% includes this happening which is 1/36 chance and also those 2 cases mentioned before... 1*5/6/6 + 5*1/6/6 +1*1/6/6 = 11/36 = approx0.306 includes 6 and 6

[Coffee]

Don't expect a knife every so many cases it doesn't happen like that. I've seen people open 1000 cases and get nothing and others have got 2 knives in 4 cases.

[Buffoon]

Better use expected value in € to see if gambling is profitable or not