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The cases are Cobblestone package.
In a 300,000 player base, a 0.0001% chance would meant seeing 10 people talking about unboxing a dragon lore. Don't judge too quickly.
And? you have one lol
I would say a defensive amount would be over 9000
To do a trade-up with 100% chance, you'd need 10 M4A1-S Knight. They're starting at €220 a piece.
AWP | Dragon Lore MW starts from €1336 atm.
If someone lucky has bought the right box, the rest of the 900 boxes won't be giving you a DL.
Ex_dre is right in this sense. It can be over 9000.