Dragon Lore Odds

[f1ed]

I decided to do the math, using the released case odds, of getting a dragon lore out of a souvenir case. As the odds go up at 1:5 increments, it goes as follows. Mind you there has to have been a match on Cobblestone, and you need to have hit the 1:100 odds of getting a souvenir case.
1:5 are Light blue
1:25 are Blue
1:125 are Purple
1:625 are Pink (Knights)
1:3125 are Dragon Lores
To put this in perspective
The average person has a 1:220, 1/10 of the chances of a Dragon Lore, of writing a best selling novel. You also have about the same odds of writing that novel as being the same height of Hugh Jackman. You also are about 12 times more likely to inbox a knife. Anyways, back to the Dragon Lores. Although any Dragon Lore is great, but everyone wants the Factory New one. Well, those are far more rare. There is a slightly less than 7% (as a skin has to be at least 0.06999999999 repeating to be Factory New) chance of getting a Factory New skin of any kind. That makes the odds of getting a Factory New Dragon Lore 0.0000224% or 1:4464284.71. Good luck on those Cobblstone Packages

[OceanGazer]

pics or it didn't happen

[f1ed]

Originally posted by Window Licker:

pics or it didn't happen

It’s not like I hit it, but if you want to check the math go ahead.

[AvoxJake]

Crazy

[𝟬𝟭]

ok

[DocCovington]

Originally posted by ✪f1ed|cs.money:

1:3125 are Dragon Lores
To put this in perspective
The average person has a 1:220, 1/10 of the chances of a Dragon Lore [...]

How does 220 equal 1/10 of 3125?

Anyway, your general point is valid.

[Garou]

Skins are overrated

[f1ed]

Originally posted by DocCovington:

Originally posted by ✪f1ed|cs.money:

1:3125 are Dragon Lores
To put this in perspective
The average person has a 1:220, 1/10 of the chances of a Dragon Lore [...]

How does 220 equal 1/10 of 3125? :angryEyes:

Anyway, your general point is valid. :bigGrin:

It was approximate, I had to go do actual homework so I need to finish the post. It is slightly more than 10 times better odds

Originally posted by bond james bond 007:

Skins are overrated

When there is a 1:4464284.71 of getting 35k, that is when they are not overrated

[RaG1ng]

♥♥♥♥ probably no Dlore for me :/ Just bought 16x Cobblestone for nothing xD /s

[Hodde]

Pretty sure the first tier is flipped, 45 for light blue. Unless you skipped over the lowest tier as gray?

[f1ed]

Originally posted by Hodde:

Pretty sure the first tier is flipped, 45 for light blue. Unless you skipped over the lowest tier as gray?

Get has less than 4:5,, but yeah, I skipped it.

[maylicious entity]

My little brother facepalmed once I finished reading this

[Ranty]

tl;dr buy the skins you want with money because if you spend money unboxing packages you may as well throw your money in the furnace.