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And I have dropped monitoring stations on AI at war with each other and can confirm they do fight.
Often, in a 12 player map, 4 or 5 AI get killed by other AI, not me.
I tend to wipe out 2 or 3 AI.
Then go for doomsday.
Here's an example of how little effectiveness there is for the human player attempting to diplomatically isolate one opponent in order to focus on the others (something that would make this game potentially more interesting to play because there'd be another strategic option available to them):
I'm at war with 2 of the 3, the one I'm not at war with I share no common border with and I've maintained a non-aggression with them for going on like 100 turns. They have been in and out of war status with both of the other 2 and I've made a point of offering defense pact with them when they are at war with the others. But here's the punch line, I've offered them this defensive pact and sweetened it with, get this, 400 cosmite. No deal. Then I offered it with 3,000 energy. No deal.
Both of these offers were rated as awful for me, which of course means they were great for the AI I was offering them to. It literally does not matter what I offer to them to improve the deal for them, they reject it. Period.
And no, I don't have any debufs to our relations, If they existed I managed to get those off, that at least works. And I've flattered the hell out of them and gotten our relations very positive, but it makes no difference.
Really basic blocking and tackling of diplomacy is enemy of my enemy is my friend. That does not exist here from my experience. And I've tried every variation I can think of dozens of times in every campaign for 170 hours so far.
My experience: diplomacy simply does not work.
Btw, as insult to injury, I have on numerous occasions offered non-aggression to an AI, been declined only to have them offer up a non-aggression the very next turn. Better yet, I get messages saying they think we should improve relations in a message, I then open up diplomacy and offer such an improvement and they decline it. This sort of behavior makes me laugh at how diplomacy simply does not work.
As far as I can tell, rep only changes the rate at which they're willing to exchange energy with other goods with you, and not by very much. I would only consider raising rep with a specific commander if I need something with them right away and I don't have enough energy and they're hostile towards me; in that case you mjight save just enough energy to make a trade go through but that's a rather extreme case.
It's more just disappointment because I thought this was supposed to be one of the things they worked to improve on from AOW3, only I'm just not seeing any real world in-game evidence anything much has changed.
What I do however find interesting is that a single guy developed Aggressors: Ancient Rome and the diplomacy in that game actually works.
I aimed for a diplomatic victory in my first scenario and was on my own continent, I managed to almost get an alliance with every AI by mid game (8 player game), even those who hated me at first, and I was more disappointed none ever declared or dragged me into a war, but my only continent neighbor was my first ally so he protected me from any claim problems.
Otherwise it was smooth yet the AI was at war with eachother a ton, and by the end 3 had been wiped out, 1 was too weak to do anything, my 2 allies were super powerful and the last was a Dvar that didn't like anyone.
Either way, I never found diplomacy hard, even in campaign I managed to get alliances before finishing quests to reach it. It's just a matter how you play. If you're warmongering and not buttering up to AI it'll be rough. I tend to need to have a relation of 800 or more to get an alliance, rep don't mean much other than it being less likely they'll go to war with you I found.