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So I think four farms and two mills should be more than enough to keep a bakery running constantly.
The important things are the upgrades and the people working in the buildings: Having four additional workers and more storage in the farms makes them a lot more efficient, and if you promote the workers in the bakery they produce bread faster. Which of course could mean you need more farms and mills to run it constantly. I haven´t tested that because with two farms and one mill and bakery I produce more than enough bread for my population.
Note: I play on 3x speed, and it seems wheat production is smaller on that speed, so it might be even less farms on 1x speed.
I currently have 2 fully-upgraded Wheat Farms, 1 fully-staffed Windmill, & 1 half-staffed Bakery. Commoners in the Bakery; all others Serfs. I have an over-abundance of Wheat & Flour feeding 115 population with leftover to sell in trade.
To dig a bit deeper from your 2nd paragraph, the amount of bread available in storage will also heavily depend on how much bread is being eaten at the markets. Scaling upward with population can be tricky since it often feels like over-producing until suddenly you're under-producing stuff if you didn't prepare.
It's rather nice to see a city game like this let the player handle the consequences of dynamic populations instead of having a linear scale built in.
I'm not sure, but I've seen people mention that sometimes the quantity of extracted resources can be sporadic or lower than they should be because of 3x speed.
At 3x speed farms will always see a significant loss in wheat yield compared to playing at 1x speed.
Unfortunately this has been the case for 6 years or so by now, so i would not expect it ever to get fixed.
So how about 2x then? Because 1x is just waiting hell lol
Now that I play exclusively in normal speed, I have more time to answer here while my pawns build ...