What do percent chances really mean?

[Corp.fox]

I had a tough mission. Tried to kill ammo trucks but lost my mechs and pilots. When I finally avoided them, had a fighting chance. My gunner, Glitch was a hunchback with AC20. Always had 40% chance and EVERY shot was a destroy or instant kill. With those chances alone, she killed 5 of 8 mechs including a heavily dragon. Geez!

https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ugc/957467098559345984/2ACB31DE57ECD351AA9E9AF2D37F060776BF92E2/

[your.sheepy]

Good to hear that you are lucky on your 40% shots.

That's the advantage of high, focused damage. AC/20 is not the most efficient weapon in term of heat or weight per damage, but it is one of the best vehicle and mech killers because it does not spread its damage around. In case of mech that means a high percentage of its damage is transferred to CT, even when it hit a non-CT location.

[Sinsling]

How high is your pilot gunnery? My ac20 has a 80+% chance to hit targets with less than 3 evasive charges had ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ is it terrifying. Especially when the pilots decide they don't like the look of enemy cockpits.

[rangerswg]

Remember this luck on your behalf when you grumble about how you missed an 80% shot. :P The dice do even out in this game. And the to-hit rolls do not say one thing to you and another under the hood, like in X-Com. The only adjustment the game makes is if you miss a high percentage shot immediately prior, it will slightly boost accuracy the next shot.

And you can always see what modifiers are active by hovering over the percentage to-hit for each weapon.

[your.sheepy]

Originally posted by rangerswg:

The to-hit rolls do not say one thing to you and another under the hood, like in X-Com. The only adjustment the game makes is if you miss a high percentage shot immediately prior, it will slightly boost accuracy the next shot.

There is roll correction in this game, in addition to streak breaker. 40% is closer to 30% than 40% after roll correction, while 80% will be closer to 90%. The misalignment is observable and particularly obvious on low chance shots.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/pc/205058-battletech/faqs/75955/references#roll-correction

There are mods to disable the correction and they were popular at launch. My mod AIM let you adjust the correction weight and optionally to show corrected chance.

https://www.nexusmods.com/battletech/mods/242

[Corp.fox]

Glitch is slightly better stats but better service record than my main guy.
Also have A/C20+ 10 DMG, so 110DMG total.

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1502105875
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1502105894

Those screenshots were a failed mission but managed to get a couple of Heavy and Assault Mech parts thanks to Glitch.

[your.sheepy]

Originally posted by Corp.fox:

Glitch is slightly better stats but better service record than my main guy.

As her callsign suggest... she makes the game glitch.

I usually give AC/20 to my main character first, not for the kill count but because never die. Luck head punch will happen sooner or later at its optimal range, just a question of when.

P.S. AC/20 has a very short range, it is a close range weapon that can be fired at medium range. Doing so will incur -4 long range penalty, plus recoil. That is perhaps why the accuracy is low.

[VodkaBear]

You lucky with your 40% hits. Mine is almost always miss and I try not to shoot targets with lower than 50% CTH if possible. Anyway game mostly fair with chances comparing to ugly xcom CTH system mostly because CTH calculates for every shell separately instead of CTH to whole bursts. For now I quiet ok with CTH system in battletech and dont see any problems or needed improvments within it.

[Uncle_Bulgaria]

Originally posted by rangerswg:

Remember this luck on your behalf when you grumble about how you missed an 80% shot. :P The dice do even out in this game. And the to-hit rolls do not say one thing to you and another under the hood, like in X-Com. The only adjustment the game makes is if you miss a high percentage shot immediately prior, it will slightly boost accuracy the next shot.

And you can always see what modifiers are active by hovering over the percentage to-hit for each weapon.

Ha-ha definitely this. I had the opposite last night, I missed 3 out of 4 >80% chance AC20 shots last night. I was seething. It ended up costing me a +20 stab AC20++ when the mech carrying it got smashed and lost a side torso

Did score a full 3 part salvage of a Blank Knight on the mission so swings and roundabouts :)

[graystripe]

Originally posted by Corp.fox:

Glitch is slightly better stats but better service record than my main guy.
Also have A/C20+ 10 DMG, so 110DMG total.

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1502105875
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1502105894

Those screenshots were a failed mission but managed to get a couple of Heavy and Assault Mech parts thanks to Glitch.

ok, i think i know why most of your pilots their shots rate is low.

1) call shots skill still requires high gunnery skill to work fully.

do not use call shots skill if your gunnery skill is low.

also the range to your target affects the weapons you going to use as well to hit the opponenets mech.

these below that i'm going to post is a good combination for what kind of pilots you want to get.

The various combinations of skills have various strengths:

i) Gunnery + Piloting is a flexible option for fast mechs. You get bonuses to both ranged and melee damage, along with evasion. Prioritising Piloting is probably better as you get the benefit of Ace Pilot making you very irritating in a relatively lighter mech, firing then retreating into cover.

ii) Gunnery + Guts is a powerful option for Mechs that are planning to stand still and fire, like heavier medium-range mechs. Prioritising Gunnery is probably stronger to get Breaching Shot, as Juggernaut is less use if you took Gunnery over Piloting.

iii) Gunnery + Tactics is perfect for long-range fire, as the indirect fire, minimum range and called shots bonuses synergise well with accurate LRMs, PPCs and so on. Equally, it does nothing for your defences, so staying at range is wise. You probably want to emphasise Gunnery to get Breaching Shot, though could also use Master Tactician to make sure your heavy weapons get in early each round.

iv) Piloting + Guts is good for brawler-type mechs who are mainly melee focused, as Juggernaut works very well with the melee bonuses from Piloting.

v) Piloting + Tactics and Guts + Tactics do not really synergise much at all so are not recommended. Although, Piloting + Tactics can make a solid "Spotter" build, when paired with a fast 'Mech, using it's jump jets to fly around the map, and sensor lock any other 'Mechs just out of range, a good pairing with a LRM or 'Sniper' build mech in the far back.

p.s you put too many points on guts + tactics which are a very bad combination.

[Second Batch]

No, the real reason is on Smithson the lighter mechs hop around the mineral fields getting +4 defense, plus some evasion, plus the small target bonus.

[your.sheepy]

1) Called Shot increase hit chance somewhat, so it's sometimes best used to increase a newbie pilot's hit chance, instead of wasting that bonus on a veteran. The chance that a hitting shot will hit the called location is unrelated to gunnery and is decided mainly by Tactic and direction.

2) Which skill is useful depends on your style and game stage, but as of 1.2 I think most experienced players will go either Breaching Shot or Master Tactician for the end game. I personally go all Master Tactician, so I do put point in guts and tactics both.