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Also, when you are actually on the field, the whole thing is reversed: those weapons may now give you -2 to hit which actually mean +10% accuracy, while indirect fire is +3 which means -15% accuracy.
Easy and simple, yes?
Well, the real picture is a lot more fancy than that. But I'll keep it simple here.
For example; +3 hit = 36% hit chance, +1 hit = 85% chance.
Tldr the hit chance does follow linear scaling.
Has the D20 thing actually been stated anywhere by the developer?
My understanding is the 5% rounding is just a UI thing.
The "target" shot difficulty is hardcoded, in ToHit.GetUMChance. It will add 2.5% before flooring off to 5%, so the real target number always come in step of 5%. The code also caps the range to 5% - 95%.
Now that you have a hit chance, an attack roll is rolled. It is then "corrected" with a curve that make high rolls higher and low rolls lower. After that, if you missed the last shot, a streak breaker bonus is applied (the higher the last shot's chance, and the higher the miss streak, the higher the bonus). The final number is compared with the chance.
I have made a mode that can already fine tune the roll correction and streak breaker, with an independent log to verify the numbers.
https://www.nexusmods.com/battletech/mods/242
I am also working on an update that controlls the hit chance part, for example to remove the stepping, change the min/max cap, allow bonus to increase accuracy beyond the base, and/or to change how modifiers are applied.
https://github.com/Sheep-y/BattleTech_Mods/releases
I won't link to the 58000 srm I tested before starting the mod, which also comfirms that those +2.5% gunnery stats are wasted without modding.