TomT - vials of blood

[Flooz]

I'm keeping track here of every run, the entry cost of vials and the reward. If anyone else is interested, feel free to reply and update it each week.

Week: reward/cost

week 1 - 6/14
week 2 - 5/3
week 3 - 6/11
week 4 - 7/4
week 5 - 7/14
week 6 - 8/8
week 7 - 6/6
week 8 - 7/6
week 9 - 21/14
week 10 - 6/8

[Hecate]

Week 1: T10 → 5c: 18 (1-0-2-2) → +4
Week 2: T10 → 6c: 10 (0-0-4-2) → −4
Week 3: T9 → 5c: 6 (0-0-1-4) → −5

[kab_reg]

Current stock between campaigns: 143.

As I said before, it still fluctuates around 140.

[Flooz]

I'm still way too low for T10 to be sustainable. 158 vials/88 chests

[Flooz]

Another T7 : 7/6.

Relaxing however: Day 1 the kill is usually in.

[Hecate]

Week 1: T10 → 5c: 18 (1-0-2-2) → +4
Week 2: T10 → 6c: 10 (0-0-4-2) → −4
Week 3: T9 → 5c: 6 (0-0-1-4) → −5
Week 4: T10 → 6c: 13 (0-2-1-3) → −1

[Hecate]

Week 1: T10 → 5c: 18 (1-0-2-2) → +4
Week 2: T10 → 6c: 10 (0-0-4-2) → −4
Week 3: T9 → 5c: 6 (0-0-1-4) → −5
Week 4: T10 → 6c: 13 (0-2-1-3) → −1
Week 5: T10 → 6c: 8 (0-0-2-4) → −6

[Flooz]

First time I had a decent return: T10-21/14

I used a prismatic so the stack is a little bit higher now.

[kab_reg]

Current stock between campaigns: 137.

[Jimmy]

Ive reached T10 very quick since the mechanic was released.

1 run for each Tier +5 total extra on the way.
had 3 extra runs on T9 before we cracked it with my group at the time.

So since then 142 T-10 Trials have been completed according to my byteglow stats.

There were times when Prismatic Vials would unlock the Trial for all team members but ive stopped using this since their re-work. Actually have 10 prisms now in my bags.

Even so, since then i have consistently increased my Vials of Blood inventory.
At the time of this post i have 478 in my bag.
Some weeks i get less than i paid for, but overall my supply has been steadily increasing.

So im confident in saying long term you are on a net positive.

[Hecate]

As said elsewhere, emmote have made the job about the vials.

The odds are:
Common - 0.44
Uncommon - 0.33
Rare - 0.14
Epic - 0.08

Giving an average of 2.67 vials per card.

The game is sunstainable at every tier, where tier 6 offering the highest return from drop minus cost:

Average vials & profit per tier:
1 - 2.67 / 2.67
2 - 4.00 / 3.00
3 - 5.33 / 4.33
4 - 6.67 / 4.67
5 - 8.00 / 5.00
6 - 9.33 / 5.33
7 - 10.67 / 4.67
8 - 12.00 / 4.00
9 - 13.33 / 2.33
10 - 14.67 / 0.67

With only 0.67 of profit on T10, a bad noise distribution (= "unlucky") can make a player having reals trouble to sustain it.

edit: src: https://emmotes.github.io/ → New Trials of Mount Tiamat Vial Odds

[Flooz]

Yeah, the issue is that it is sustainable over a large amount of chests which can be disastrous.

In reality, it doesn't drop 0.08 epic vials; it's either 1 or none and while, over enough time, they will drop, if your stack isn't high enough, you're out of vials before that can happen. A load of commons/uncommons and you're depleted if you keep doing T10.

I think the smart thing to do is build a reasonable stack first by doing lower risk tiers.

[Hecate]

Yup, maybe switching to T6 or T7 when you're under something between 20 and 50 vials, according to your own confidence (or use a prismatic if you've it).

[Flooz]

Yeah, once you go below 50, drop in Tiers.

If you have a 100% Makos, T6 isn't too bad. It's an easy week and still brings 11k scales.

Best is to stick to tiers that have a fixed amount of chests, that already lowers the risk of loss.

[Hecate]

Week 1: T10 → 5c: 18 (1-0-2-2) → +4
Week 2: T10 → 6c: 10 (0-0-4-2) → −4
Week 3: T9 → 5c: 6 (0-0-1-4) → −5
Week 4: T10 → 6c: 13 (0-2-1-3) → −1
Week 5: T10 → 6c: 8 (0-0-2-4) → −6
Week 6: T10 → 6c: 20 (1-0-3-2) → +6

[kab_reg]

Current stock between campaigns: 146.