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Basically maintaining reliability in a nutshell: Wait 10 turns to break a treaty, Wait 10 turns from broken treaty to start a war, Wait 10 turns from starting a war to make peace
1: Bumrush Skrolk and Memeheart (Which you did right)
2: Consolidate and expand slowly afterwards (Which you did not)
3: Don't use alliances. Especially on normal. Factions that like you enough won't suddenly 180 on you on normal anyway.
Seriously. Taking the province of Itza and the province you should have Skrolk kicked out of by turn 10 is enough for like the first 50 turns easy. All the rando AI factions should be aimlessly trading minor provinces with the Coast anyway for all that time, giving you enough time to get two fully developed provinces (Build garrisons everywhere, you're right next to one of the chaos spawnpoints!)
If things feel pretty secure far earlier (Not that uncommon on normal) you can cross the mountains to kick the Sentinels of Xeti to the curb, as that part of the map literally never, EVER sees any traffic in ME. EVER. So it should as well be yours, right? The province just to its north is also fair game, and then SLOWLY work your way eastward and nom up everything that exists.
Also, don't forget that with Kroak siege attacks become a total pushover. All his spells can be cast onto walls, and the AI never actually sallies out of the gates during the fight, so you can just sit juuuust outside of tower range and continue deleting unit after unit.
My advice: send scouts across the ocean, find the empire-dwarfish conglomerate and declare war on them. You need to do that before the real chaos strikes.