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If Tyrion is part of the top 10, with a strength close to yours, 1-2 bad fights could shift that powerbalance in his favour, making him the stronger one.
On the other hand, if the same happens to Tyrion(he loses a series of figths, putting his strength in relation to yours way lower), he might want to confederate.
As such, try to have him engage in as many wars as possible. Make him overextend and exhaust his armies. Give him targets that are far away from his territory so that he cant quickly reinforce or hold any conquerered territory.
However, if you mess up and he actually succeeds, he only gets stronger.
Alternatively, just enjoy the fact that you have a strong ally to trade with and who deals with any annoying threats so that you dont have to send out armies for that.
You can usually buy him out for 50-80k
Thise are the factors for confederation.
- Race.. Some races confed easier then others.
- Strength.. your strength compared to the other one, this higher you are the lower they are the better.
- Your Realiability. The higher the better.
- Relation to the other faction.
- And most importently what is the situation when you try..
Meaning you have have one that are red one turn and then Green and would pay you to confedc next turn because they just had a wipeout.
Have not tried this after patch, but before patch you could ally with them, build up relation with them, when you then are in war with servel others, then ask them to attack something and when they do, and wipeout, you cancel your ally and confed them same round, because then they suddently stand with no army, in war with 3-4 other that are stronger.. Not only will they confed, they pay you alot to do it.
But you have to do it same round, before your relation starts to drop from the cancel.