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Especially in Naggarond since they typically wont be able to hold any land they do take and it'll grind their armies down/kill them entirely. Usually then they're willing to confederate once they lose their troops. Other than that lots of money can bring a Low->Moderate.
2.) The Friend of my enemy is not my friend - Confederations become exponentially difficult if you have any agreement with a faction the confederatee is hostile towards.
3.) Don't be a B*** - As previously said, if you are weaker typically nobody will want to confederate with a weaker faction
4.) Good relations - For the most part unless you are at least 200+ relations confederations are not possible.
I find confederating other factions of other races easier by dumping 50k to 100k to their feet to confederate strong factions and demanding money from minor factions to confederate.
Honestly if you've killed their enemies, which often they have the same enemies as you so I end up doing this a lot, its really hard to confederate them. Cause they'll never lose enough stuff to want to confederate. If you get stronger than them by enough, you can throw in like 20-30k and confederate without them having 0 armies. But it seems you have money concerns, so honestly the best option is probably either to base your strategy on not having those territories, or just betray them. I mean you don't lose anything for killing any of them but lothern, and even then thats just tyrion.
Only factions I can ever confederate with high consistency are greenskins and norsca, cause they'll confed if you just kill all their armies.
I also confederated Naggarythe with a defensive alliance at around 100 relation, due to them losing most of their armies against Dark Elves.
Lothern was a bit tricky, as they were the 7th or 8th strongest faction(I being the 1st) and had 3 armies(this was around turn 45 or something). I had to pay them my entire treasury(which at that time was about 15k) as well, but hey, I got Tyrion and Alastar before the AI messed with their skills too much.
Prior to this, I had tried for about 20 consecutive turns to make a confederation with them, and when it happened, it was only "moderate".
So maybe it is simply chance based on a turn-to-turn basis.
Yeah that's the problem with them. Too much pride. Even lizardmen give an easier time confederating.