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Actually in my current campaign Estalia is alive and kicking at over 100 turns and Tilea has become a moderate power. Had not seen this before but it appears they allied and Tilea took over Skavenblight. Estalia ended up reduced to one province but has started to expand a bit. They have mostly been fighting Greenskins and are doing ok because I used the High Elf Influence system to put them on good enough terms with Wood Elves to get them some help. I don't think they'll hold out forever but I am hoping they can last long enough for me to turn my attention on Greenskins. My armies have mostly been focused on wiping out Dark Elves and trying to keep the Empire alive by weakening Undead and Chaos factions up north. Malekith is down to 9 provinces though so hopefully I can get some more armies into the Old World to back them up in the next 15-20 turns.
Not surprising. I haven't finished my pre-Aye Aye patch campaign yet so I haven't had any of the actual Vampire Coast factions in the mix yet. I imagine having some real Undead Pirates around is going to make things a lot tougher for a whole bunch of coastal factions next playthrough. Even without them, this current campaign is the best I've seen Tilea and Estalia do all the way back to the first game, they have never been in a great position
One notable thing about Southern Empires factions is that they don't confederate and later on this makes them vulnerable. They have a lot of potentially hostile factions nearby which puts pressure on them if one gets the tiniest edge.
I've actually seen the border princes hold out pretty well, but Estalia always dies and Tilea fights a desperate war if they arn't also dead. But I mean the border princes are basically Belarus and nobody cares about Belarus.