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I don't know the formula, but it is something like roughly 50 settlemens or about 200 turns.
I heard the trigger is based on a hidden statistic which estimates your power level, but I have never seen an exact formula for that. The above numbers are not exact either.
Start to occupy settlements and see if that helps. (I was in the same situation when I wanted to play a "small empire" game.)
This is not the case. I just completed the short campaign with diplomacy. I had three provinces the whole game.
Expect lots of Chaos stacks to show up in multiple waves before Archeon joins them. For me it was somewhere around five waves. I just had a couple of stacks sitting at Praag to intercept them.
Keep going, he will come.
EDIT: It is still possible the trigger is somehow connected to your power, just not the number of settlements you own. I was making 10k+ per turn through trade and my power ranking was around 6. I also had a few alliances (which might add to your settlement count), but you have alliances too. It might also be related to turns, but I don't think it's as much as 200. All I can say for certain is that in my game he eventually turned up.
EDIT 2: ...at around turn 160.
I had only completed around half of the short campaign objectives at that point, and it was around turn 160.
- I was playing as Dwarfs on Legendary.
- I owned 3 provinces and had full alliances with 2 other factions.
- I was around power rank 6.
In my "small empire" campaign they appeared pretty close to 150, and then I was stomping those waves for almost 50 turns. I got desperate at about 180 (of the boredom), and occupied some settlements - had to go to southlands for the prime estate, putting me to ~50 at ~turn 200, and he appeared.
Some DLC / patch notes apparently said (at least I read a comment about that) that the trigger settlment numbers are 30 / 50, but I have seen comments it is not true, and comments that there is a time limit. And some comments that your plain strength rating can also trigger it - being in the top 3 would accelerate it. Not sure if I agree.
In WH1 the formula was - from memory - maybe "capital is 4 points, large settlement is 2 points, small is 1 point, 24+ points causes the initial waves, 36+ (?) points causes Archaon". Something like that, it has been years since that.
It would be nice to know what the actual formula is. In WH1 it was possible to game it, staying at 23 points (or whatever) as long as necessary ...