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The 4x average of MHW vs MHR is because of the MHWilds announcement, lowest discount, and the Capcom return to Astera stuff.
Note though that before this, and it was still steadily widening already: MHW was holding roughly double the average playercount of Rise's for a few months. Ever since June of this year, MHW had an overall higher concurrent playercount than Rise on Steam. And this is notable if you compare peak all time concurrent playercounts of both games on Steam: Rise's sits at roughly 230k, where World is roughly 330k. It's also notable that Sunbreak's final content update was in early June of this year.
Yes World sold more total copies (particularly on PC from what I recall), yes it's on deeper discount. Yes Rise's primary platform is likely the Switch, yes Rise is available on all modern platforms to divide up its playerbase further.
Years later, worldwide pandemic, and botched PS5/xbox launches (the consoles, not Rise on them necessarily, but that did it no favors with delayed content updates) + overall lack of exclusive games means more folks have a decent or good gaming PC too.
So, without partly going into the exact thing you say everyone's tired of, nevermind discussing MH as a whole, there's a lot of factors at play. You can make logical assumptions based on various bits of broad-but-concrete historical data that is available, which likely are at least partly accurate.
(And note, I mostly agree with you about the tiredness assuming you check least these forums with some regularity, though I do have specific comments about various types of ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ constantly throwing fuel into the fire. Often without realizing what they're doing I feel, though a good portion clearly are on purpose).
Only a fool would pass on the 50% off for a 20-30$ game, which would be 10-15$.
Even a bigger fool for missing out on this previous one WHICH WAS THE LOWEST PRICE EVER!
https://steamcharts.com/app/582010 this will always show you daily peak. At peak time it's over 100k
capcom decided to stop comms and decided MHWorld was more important
which tells you the leadership is corrupted
This..!!
OP, this is the answer. Capcom hates to give substantial discounts of its games (its CEO went publicly went on a tirade against discounts during some interview/speech), so the fact that MHW complete game (MHW: Iceborne Master Edition Digital Deluxe) is currently on a steal deal as a massive discount, this is why PC gamers who could not afford MHW all these years are quickly grabbing it and playing. Hence the tens of thousands of active players in MHW recently.
Ironically, I think the incredible sales of MHW during this discount season will hopefully make Capcom and other Far East studios realise how much more money they can make by selling their games at affordable rates. PC gamers are not idiots, we tend to wait for sales and freebies in order to enjoy our games, so the PC gaming market is quite different from consoles market where players will happily pay through the roof for those console exclusives.
#PCMasterRace, yay!
By the way, MH Rise was a downgraded game meant for the portable Switch, so we should not compare it to MHW. It is not in the same league, and there'll always be lesser Switch players than PC or console players. Switch is not even sold in my country, in fact.
Locking the major part of a build will never be a good option no matter what.
Proof:
Iceborne: let's use the sale on sep 11. for example: 50% discount and the player numbers are around 40000.
Sunbreak: Let's use the same sale on sep 11. : 40% discount and the player chart was:
around 21000
This is was before any "return to world" campaign and it still shows that even with a sale Iceborne pulls ahead.
My sources:
https://steamdb.info/app/1118010/
https://steamcharts.com/app/582010#1y
https://steamdb.info/app/1880360/
https://steamcharts.com/app/1446780#1y
MHW - furry killing game