I'm farming dark wraiths to get a titanite slab

[Tyler]

With what I have, I can get up to 350 item discovery. How long do you think it would take?

[CB]

it will either take forever or like ten minutes. i got 22 dark hands in between slab drops, once.

[richardson]

From the reddit:

Assuming 0.21% is correct Base item discovery is 100.

4.1 x 0.0021 = 0.84%

Assuming you kill only the five "easy" ones to reach, that's a base chance per run of 4.2% of finding a single titanite slab.

At 350, that would be a bit less than 4.2%.- so it looks like ~17 runs to have a 50% chance of getting one.

[lavalobster93]

it can take hours or minutes.
i farmed them for hours across multiple days and gave up, then on my way to the four kings, i got two slabs

[dcy665]

I cannot add anything beyond what the others have commented. I farmed nearly every evening for a week and got nothing. Went in to see if I forgot something in the Dark Wraiths area, got one on the first one I dropped.

I swear some of these games listen to us, just so they make it more grindy, then poof - a slab! << aren't these the worst exclamation marks ever???

[yds]

Have you killed all the crystal lizards in Great Hollow? I think there's at least 10 of them, and some could drop slabs. I got a slab from them at least twice in recent memory. And killing them, while difficult, doesn't take nearly as long as farmind Darkwraiths could take,

[CT 2858 Chen]

in ptde long ago i lost alm 20 gameplay hours on farming that slab, NG++++++ better

[Kthulhu]

My advice: farm them for CHUNKS, and if you happen to get a slab, great! If not, take all your equipment to as high as you can upgrade it with the chunks, and move on. Get the three slabs you can always get, and kill the crystal lizards in the Great Hollow to maybe get some more, but the minor boost you get from going from +14 to +15 isn't worth the effort to do much more than that.

[Michanicks]

Lol, good luck with that, I once farmed them for days and didn't get a single slab.

[QuentinTeo]

Originally posted by richardson:

From the reddit:

Assuming 0.21% is correct Base item discovery is 100.

4.1 x 0.0021 = 0.84%

Assuming you kill only the five "easy" ones to reach, that's a base chance per run of 4.2% of finding a single titanite slab.

At 350, that would be a bit less than 4.2%.- so it looks like ~17 runs to have a 50% chance of getting one.

Well, that's not correct. Let's round up and say that there's 1% chance to have a titanite slab. If the game was forced to drop a titanite slab every 100 dark wraith killed Reddit is right. But, since the game is not forced to do that, the mechanism is that every time you kill a darkwraith you have a 1% chance to get a slab. Sadly, those percentages don't add. It's like with a ruolette: there's one chance that your number will be the correct one among 38, but it's not assured that you can win one time if you bet on the same number 38 times.

[QuentinTeo]

Originally posted by Tyler:

With what I have, I can get up to 350 item discovery. How long do you think it would take?

Anyway, don't bother to farm the slab: sadly, their drop rate is so much low that lots of player didn't even have one dropped XD and I'm one of them, even with the countless hours spent on the PS3 farming chunks. Don't go hollow with this waste of time... And praise the sun!

[richardson]

Originally posted by QuentinTeo:

Originally posted by richardson:

From the reddit:


At 350, that would be a bit less than 4.2%.- so it looks like ~17 runs to have a 50% chance of getting one.

Well, that's not correct. Let's round up and say that there's 1% chance to have a titanite slab. If the game was forced to drop a titanite slab every 100 dark wraith killed Reddit is right. But, since the game is not forced to do that, the mechanism is that every time you kill a darkwraith you have a 1% chance to get a slab. Sadly, those percentages don't add. It's like with a ruolette: there's one chance that your number will be the correct one among 38, but it's not assured that you can win one time if you bet on the same number 38 times.

Note that I said 50% chance. I also should have clarified that it's "at least one" (although the odds of getting two are ridiculously low). It's conditional probability.

The chance to _not_ get a drop each time through is 96%. The chance to not get a drop in either of your first two trips is 96% * 96%, or 92%. Carrying this out further, the chance to not get a drop in any of your first 17 trips is 96% ^ 17, or 50%.

As you say, there's no number of runs where you are assured to get one, and getting one doesn't affect the chances of getting the next (gambler's fallacy).

[yds]

Never expected this thread to become so educational

[QuentinTeo]

Originally posted by richardson:

Originally posted by QuentinTeo:

Well, that's not correct. Let's round up and say that there's 1% chance to have a titanite slab. If the game was forced to drop a titanite slab every 100 dark wraith killed Reddit is right. But, since the game is not forced to do that, the mechanism is that every time you kill a darkwraith you have a 1% chance to get a slab. Sadly, those percentages don't add. It's like with a ruolette: there's one chance that your number will be the correct one among 38, but it's not assured that you can win one time if you bet on the same number 38 times.

Note that I said 50% chance. I also should have clarified that it's "at least one" (although the odds of getting two are ridiculously low). It's conditional probability.

The chance to _not_ get a drop each time through is 96%. The chance to not get a drop in either of your first two trips is 96% * 96%, or 92%. Carrying this out further, the chance to not get a drop in any of your first 17 trips is 96% ^ 17, or 50%.

As you say, there's no number of runs where you are assured to get one, and getting one doesn't affect the chances of getting the next (gambler's fallacy).

Wow, I never thought in the opposite way (chance to not get the drop), now it seems like that the odds are with me! There's still something that I don't get, but maybe it's because it's been so long from the last time I did statistics at school 😅

Anyway, they should've added a counter in-game to assure some drops. Maybe with future games... Maybe