Anyone else think percentages are messed up?

[Chimichanga]

I quite often miss with 90-98% chances to hit.

Editing to make my situation more clear. I have a brains weapon that needs 3 slots. This weapon at the start says 85% chance to get a perfect. Then using focus, it changes to a 95% chance. I used it once in 3 different dungeon battles and it missed =each time because even with the focus used @95% it missed.

I also encounter many situations where my sword has 2 or 3 slots, my hit chance is a 90 or 92% chance and can miss maybe 3/5 times.

[[OO] coldsteel]

It depends on how many slots you have for your weapon. Remember that you roll for each slot separately. So, at 85% you have a 15% chance to miss on each slot. So 15%+15%+15% chance to miss on a 3 slot weapon, which is pretty substantial. It's not an overall 85% chance for a perfect hit.

[Seekah]

Coldsteel, don't want to ruin your maths there but you do still have an average overall 85% chance for a perfect hit, each attempt invidually is a 85% hit.

[Abaddon1]

Technically you are both wrong, at 85% chance to hit on a three slot you have a 61.4% chance of a perfect hit. Each individual hit is 85% at the same probability, but you need to multiply across the % chance of each hit for the desired result.

[Cap'n Darwin]

+1 Abaddon1

[Chimichanga]

Originally posted by Abaddon1:

Technically you are both wrong, at 85% chance to hit on a three slot you have a 61.4% chance of a perfect hit. Each individual hit is 85% at the same probability, but you need to multiply across the % chance of each hit for the desired result.

so what if i add the focus to make it 95%, does that acrue only for one of the 3 slots or is that 95% for each of the 3 slots that i am talkinga about?

[Cap'n Darwin]

Focus only works on the one slot it make a success. The others are at the base percentage.

[Abaddon1]

Originally posted by ~elitekiller~:

Originally posted by Abaddon1:

Technically you are both wrong, at 85% chance to hit on a three slot you have a 61.4% chance of a perfect hit. Each individual hit is 85% at the same probability, but you need to multiply across the % chance of each hit for the desired result.

so what if i add the focus to make it 95%, does that acrue only for one of the 3 slots or is that 95% for each of the 3 slots that i am talkinga about?

So in your example, using focus to make subsequent rolls 95% would change a 3-slot 85% roll to a 2-slot 95% chance which would have a 90.25% chance of the subsequent two rolls being perfect.

[幸去矢嵐]

just get the stats to 100, then you wont have that kind of problem
100% hit chance

I dont believe in chances, there are only 50% and 100%
either you never miss, or you hit or you miss ;P

[Chimichanga]

Originally posted by day7acoustics:

just get the stats to 100, then you wont have that kind of problem
100% hit chance

I dont believe in chances, there are only 50% and 100%
either you never miss, or you hit or you miss ;P

Originally posted by day7acoustics:

just get the stats to 100, then you wont have that kind of problem
100% hit chance

I dont believe in chances, there are only 50% and 100%
either you never miss, or you hit or you miss ;P

i try to get it 100 but on the wa to getting there it annoys me

[Darkshape]

My anecdotal evidence:

Yesterday I completed my first game (on apprentice) as host with a friend. My "main" was playing as the Hunter. While using a particular bow with the "weapon shot" trait (I think) I reset-locked Vexar (or whatever his name is). My % chance for perfect was only about 70% with my 100 awareness, yet I succeeded no less than 10 times in a row, with the party achieving seemingly identical rolls as well. RNG happens, but I have to wonder.

[Samseng Yik]

3 slot weapon will roll 3 times and 1 miss equal to complete miss?
Wow. better give damage penalty instead of full miss.

[Cap'n Darwin]

Depends on the target and their skills. In many cases you will get reduced damage, but some enemies have a block or evasion skill like your characters. It's possibly to hit all your attack rolls and still get dodged. The same way your characters can dodge a full hit attack at times.

[Scarlet Ribbon]

Every game ever that uses percentages will have people ♥♥♥♥♥ about them. The reality is that humans just really suck at reality vs. expectations where probability is concerned, and on top of that, we have a habit of remembering when things go wrong, but not when they go right.

If you want to make claims about the percentages being broken, you need data, not individual anecdotes. That means taking a LARGE sample size of unbiased data.

[Cap'n Darwin]

It seems that very few gamers truly understand probability and combination mathmatics (let's toss in coding and random number use on computers as well). Throw in observation bias and poor sample sizes for "tests" and many games end up with "bad" RNG threads. I know one game that had to bias the rolls in the players favor after taking so much RNG flak on their forum and other developers definately notice these trends.

[Dalwin]

I see this same thread in every game that has an RNG element.

Basically unless you keep religfious stats across hundreds of rolls you cannot tell. It is basic human nature to remember the times when bad luck screwed you more firmly than you remember all the times routine things went your way or that lucky flukes saved you.

I think it is ight as it is, but not having kept teh afore mentioned hundreds of rolls worth of records I will not swear to it.