A prediction on the game and studio outcome

[Mailstorm]

So, let me start off with the TL;DR.

• Game is overpriced for what it offers and 10CC knows this
  
• 10CC is in the red financial
  
• If the game was cheaper + had matchmaking, I'd buy it

Now the whole thing.

Let's start with the first TLDR point.

The game is overpriced and 10CC knows it is.

"But if they know it's overpriced, why did they price it here???"

Sales tactics. The original plan for pricing was to immediately put it on sale which is exactly what they did. Normally, things go on sale to give the appearance of value or that you are in-fact saving money. While this is true (saving money when something is on sale that you have full intent to buy), it also opens a question of

"Why did they put this on sale immediately after release?"

Money. While this isn't a super official source, it still gives a good idea of the metrics of when a game goes on sale. You can see that the lowest amount a time it takes a game to reach 25% discount was 23 days in 2015. Now, the game has a 10% discount and 25 =/= 10 but the point still stands. The majority of video games do not go on sale immediately after release. Having this happen is a red flag. It's a way to draw people into buying what 10CC knows is over-priced for what they have currently (Which is more of a functional prototype of a test-bed for the gameplay mechanics).

10CC is in the red financially.

You don't know this. 10CC is a private company and has not released sale numbers

This is not hard to figure out. You just need 15 minutes of research, some generous guessing, and a little math. While it is true I don't know the sales figures, I can make a few guesses as to where they are and how much they have made from the game.

Steam currently takes around 30% of the cut for sales that are under $10M. At the current price of $35, GTFO would of had to sell 285k copies of the game, or 317k copies at it's current sales price. However, unless GTFO has the worst player retention in history, the average player count can give an idea of how many people bought the game.

I'm going to be generous and say the retention is 20% and say the average player count is 3.5k. This gives you a rough estimate of 18k copies sold. But I'm being generous here. So let's just bump the copies sold to 25k and no one refunded the game. So, with this we just do:

25000 x 31.49 = $787,250. Ouchies. A big number, but not big enough.

The announcement trailer was released back in 2017 in December. So the game has been in development for at least 2 years. However, it's probably been 3 because development does take a long time. Now let's run some payroll. I think these guys are Swedish, so I'm using that as a baseline for pay. I've attempted to find the pay scale for exact jobs in Sweden and then took the lowest number there.

Project Manager: $41.5k a year (Converted from 391000 kr) x1
Video Game Designer: $58k a year (Oddly, it's more than a Manager, but whatever) x3
QA: $45k a year (Cannot find reliable data, being generous) x1
Other: $50k a year (Biz Dev doesn't tell me anything, and the other jobs have a wide range) x4

Payroll for 1 year of dev time: $460.5k.

Remember, that's one year, GTFO has been in development for at least 2. So total payroll comes to $921k. That's a 133.7k loss. Fortunately, I do not know enough about Sweden to estimate taxes and what not. And the same goes for licensing and ads. So I can't go into detail about those.

I'm not going to expand on the third TL;DR because well, there is no need to explain it. It's that short and sweet. But I will eave off with this:

Don't be surprised if in ~8 months or so, development of the game just stops OR they announce MTX. It isn't the 2000's anymore. Games don't just release and then never get patched or added to again. This is 2019, players want new features and fixes. This cost money.

[Replicant Six]

Yeah, nah.

[MacBeth]

my prediction for you is: you did so much work for nothing
how old are you, 12?

[kellinator]

get over yourself!

[Covnik-19]

Just enjoy the game

[sarcoma & lymphoma]

which part of "early access" was incomprehensible to you? you are basically pre ordering a game at the moment with the benefit of being able to play an exclusive demo. if you dont like to pre order games, then wait till it gets released, simple as that.

[Panzerlied]

Matchmaking is in the roadmap: http://gtfothegame.com/roadmap/

Also, it's Early Access. Features will be added as time goes on, so when the game finally releases, matchmaking and a bunch of other stuff will be in the final product.

[Fluox]

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

Steam currently takes around 30% of the cut for sales that are under $10M. At the current price of $35, GTFO would of had to sell 285k copies of the game, or 317k copies at it's current sales price.

..why?

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

I'm going to be generous and say the retention is 20% and say the average player count is 3.5k. This gives you a rough estimate of 18k copies sold. But I'm being generous here. So let's just bump the copies sold to 25k and no one refunded the game. So, with this we just do:

25000 x 31.49 = $787,250. Ouchies. A big number, but not big enough.

..for?

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

The announcement trailer was released back in 2017 in December. So the game has been in development for at least 2 years. However, it's probably been 3 because development does take a long time. Now let's run some payroll. I think these guys are Swedish, so I'm using that as a baseline for pay. I've attempted to find the pay scale for exact jobs in Sweden and then took the lowest number there.

Project Manager: $41.5k a year (Converted from 391000 kr) x1
Video Game Designer: $58k a year (Oddly, it's more than a Manager, but whatever) x3
QA: $45k a year (Cannot find reliable data, being generous) x1
Other: $50k a year (Biz Dev doesn't tell me anything, and the other jobs have a wide range) x4

Payroll for 1 year of dev time: $460.5k.

Remember, that's one year, GTFO has been in development for at least 2. So total payroll comes to $921k. That's a 133.7k loss. Fortunately, I do not know enough about Sweden to estimate taxes and what not. And the same goes for licensing and ads. So I can't go into detail about those.

Literally "All of these numbers could be complete bunk, I dunno".

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

Don't be surprised if in ~8 months or so, development of the game just stops OR they announce MTX. It isn't the 2000's anymore. Games don't just release and then never get patched or added to again. This is 2019, players want new features and fixes. This cost money.

This isn't just a game. It's an IP. There are literally a million ways to make money with an original IP. It'll be fine.

[Videogame Jukebox]

Eh. They held their word when it came to MTX in Payday 2. It was the company that bought the IP that put them in. They also mislead people initially with how many heists their were on release in #2. So....They've done both good and shady things.

[Pyromancer]

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

It isn't the 2000's anymore. Games don't just release and then never get patched or added to again.

ummmm... what?


You grew up in the 2000's on a console didn't you?


History does not start where your memory begins.

[B〄F Altonator]

Game isn't even overpriced

[Blatant]

Trying to get total amount of sales by multiplying average player count by some arbitrary number. High level tard math going on here.

[Yankus]

"I can't afford the game so I need to make it seem bad so I can feel better about not being able to purchase it"

[Vahnkiljoy]

The second you admit to guessing you throw whatever complaint or point you are trying to make out the window, because, we all know your 'guesses' aren't going to be subjective but biased as all hell to make your point valid in your head.

[BubblestationCPH]

Yes, we can pull out numbers from wherever we want. And we can show some of them makes sense.
But we cant show the ones we dont know. And we cant add or subtract or do anything usefull with unknown variables.
1 key factor you clearly seems to be missing; when you own you own company then you set your own salery. And if you own a shop or whatever and build it ground up with peeps you know personally, friends who took your side when it mattered then you dont count the coins. Its not a matter of earning the most now, its a matter of giving up enough to make ends meet. There is noone who say you should earn half a million pr year the second you go independent. Its mental to suggest that. Another factor; this isnt their only income.

The majority of the team has been together for years now, they know(i will assume) eachother at a personal level. They decided to start a business together. if its anything similar to what ive tried then it becomes a sport to see who can be the "biggest ♥♥♥♥♥" to our shop, who can work the most hours and come up with the best ideas, who can drive the same car for longest. Its about being the biggest asset, not about getting the biggest paycheck.. yet.. ;) ofcus its all with a hope of big dosh. But if you know just a little about how it is to start up a fresh business, then you know its less than .1 % who makes a million the first year.
Youre happy if you can pay the rent and give the kids a proper present for bday/xmas.
If you dont think they can stay afloat for 1 year then im ready for a bet. I think they can

[[MM]PurplDrank]

Originally posted by Mailstorm:

So, let me start off with the TL;DR.

• Game is overpriced for what it offers and 10CC knows this
  
• 10CC is in the red financial
  
• If the game was cheaper + had matchmaking, I'd buy it

Now the whole thing.

Let's start with the first TLDR point.

The game is overpriced and 10CC knows it is.

"But if they know it's overpriced, why did they price it here???"

Sales tactics. The original plan for pricing was to immediately put it on sale which is exactly what they did. Normally, things go on sale to give the appearance of value or that you are in-fact saving money. While this is true (saving money when something is on sale that you have full intent to buy), it also opens a question of

"Why did they put this on sale immediately after release?"

Money. While this isn't a super official source, it still gives a good idea of the metrics of when a game goes on sale. You can see that the lowest amount a time it takes a game to reach 25% discount was 23 days in 2015. Now, the game has a 10% discount and 25 =/= 10 but the point still stands. The majority of video games do not go on sale immediately after release. Having this happen is a red flag. It's a way to draw people into buying what 10CC knows is over-priced for what they have currently (Which is more of a functional prototype of a test-bed for the gameplay mechanics).

10CC is in the red financially.

You don't know this. 10CC is a private company and has not released sale numbers

This is not hard to figure out. You just need 15 minutes of research, some generous guessing, and a little math. While it is true I don't know the sales figures, I can make a few guesses as to where they are and how much they have made from the game.

Steam currently takes around 30% of the cut for sales that are under $10M. At the current price of $35, GTFO would of had to sell 285k copies of the game, or 317k copies at it's current sales price. However, unless GTFO has the worst player retention in history, the average player count can give an idea of how many people bought the game.

I'm going to be generous and say the retention is 20% and say the average player count is 3.5k. This gives you a rough estimate of 18k copies sold. But I'm being generous here. So let's just bump the copies sold to 25k and no one refunded the game. So, with this we just do:

25000 x 31.49 = $787,250. Ouchies. A big number, but not big enough.

The announcement trailer was released back in 2017 in December. So the game has been in development for at least 2 years. However, it's probably been 3 because development does take a long time. Now let's run some payroll. I think these guys are Swedish, so I'm using that as a baseline for pay. I've attempted to find the pay scale for exact jobs in Sweden and then took the lowest number there.

Project Manager: $41.5k a year (Converted from 391000 kr) x1
Video Game Designer: $58k a year (Oddly, it's more than a Manager, but whatever) x3
QA: $45k a year (Cannot find reliable data, being generous) x1
Other: $50k a year (Biz Dev doesn't tell me anything, and the other jobs have a wide range) x4

Payroll for 1 year of dev time: $460.5k.

Remember, that's one year, GTFO has been in development for at least 2. So total payroll comes to $921k. That's a 133.7k loss. Fortunately, I do not know enough about Sweden to estimate taxes and what not. And the same goes for licensing and ads. So I can't go into detail about those.

I'm not going to expand on the third TL;DR because well, there is no need to explain it. It's that short and sweet. But I will eave off with this:

Don't be surprised if in ~8 months or so, development of the game just stops OR they announce MTX. It isn't the 2000's anymore. Games don't just release and then never get patched or added to again. This is 2019, players want new features and fixes. This cost money.

Well i think this guy needs a hobby.

If they want to struggle and be on a budget. Not anything i can do.