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Id have to look it up but off the top of my head its 20% chance to capture lords and 10% chance to capture a king.
There are mods in which you can improve your chances to capture any named character - with a skill like "Prisoner Management" in Pendor, with a special trait like "Dungeon Master" in Viking Conquest or with a special troop. But in Native, there is zip all you can do, short of editing the value, by hand or by using a cheating tool like TweakMB.
By the way, once the game gets going, you will be capturing plenty of lords even with that measly looking 30%.
What do?
Also go and ask a tavernkeep in one of your factions cities, they will usually tell you who needs help rescuing a family member(either a jail break or a prisoner exchange which is your mission).
Well, the first thing you can do with a lord you've caught before he can escape is to let him go free. It gives you honor, which is very important for a king-to-be, as it improves your relations with the 'saintly' lord personalities (upstanding, good natured, and benevolent) It also improves your relation with the lord you are letting go, at least if he is of a 'saintly' or 'wise аss' (martial, circumstantial, calculating, cunning) personality. The lords of an 'аssноlе' personality (debauched, sadistic, quarrelsome, self righteous, merciless) will actually hate you for releasing them, in the long run.
If you choose to keep a lord in chains, you have basically two options:
The first is to wait for a ransom, which his faction will sooner or later offer for him. Those are usually in the amount of a few thousands, and will grow if you keep refusing them. Just be aware that every time you refuse a ransom, your honor drops, and that the lord can escape on his own. If he escapes, you get nothing, of course.
The other option is to keep the lord jailed for as long as you can, so that his faction is bereft of his services. In jail, he cannot raise an army, raid your villages, defends his fiefs, etc. Of course, the above applies - this will trash your honor, and he can always escape.
And as Twinkletoes said, if you choose to keep a lord in chains, you best stick him in a walled fief with a prison tower, to reduce the chances of escape.
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By the way, in some mods, you have extra options with captured lords. You can steal their equipment (Viking Conquest) execute them to remove them from the game (Perisno) extort valuables (Pendor) try to make them switch sides or force a king to sign a peace threaty instead of rotting in your dungeons.
And it's pretty unfair that, no matter what, if your character is defeated in battle they always get captured and robbed blind.
What are the chances for a lord to escape? Is it applied daily? Does it grow over time?
I managed to capture King Harlus and wipe the Swadians off the face of the map so nobody can buy him back. Will a prison tower gurantee his captivity? I want to start a collection of enemy lords and former faction leaders in my capital city.
If memory serves.
50% in your army
30% in a castle or city
5% in a castle or city with a prison tower.
The check of if a lord can escape is checked every 48 hours.
Also I was not sure of this earlier, so I will leave this here for anyone in a similar position. Yes you do get offers for lord EVEN if they are not in your party( kept in a castle or town).
Go in game files, modules, native, scripts, then you can change the 70% percentage escape to something lower, i dont care to post the whole script thing.