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In general, you are right, especially considering the even higher initial cost of laying tracks and higher station maintenance. On the other hand, rail tracks are usually more straight, flat, (should) have less traffic problems and the cost/trouble of switching modes later on might be quite high.
Purely financially, it might be best to skip the first generation trains in favor of horse wagons and "use them up" before selling/switching when the second generation comes around.
Increased capacity/traffic will definitely favor trains in the long run. I pretty much always save me the trouble of switching later on when I'm sure that I'll do it anyway. You should not invest in much more than a minimum setup to get it running though.
Really depends on how much "work" you're willing to invest.
You should also make sure you're investing in 2 way transport as much as possible, especially with trains...
Trains can make huge profits in situations where trucks are completely impractical. I am talking distance here!
Any direct comparison that makes sense where, by your calculations, trucks have an advantage means a route comparison where trains are severely compromised - in other words the distance of the route for a train is exceedingly disadvantageous.
I play TpF only on hard and also begin in 1850. I played a couple of games where I used trucks to start. Made money easy but found the fleet management of hordes of trucks a right royal PITA.
Much more fun with trains...
The key to doing well with trains starting in 1850 on hard is simple - the planning, design, and laying out of that very first line is the make or break moment. What you do, even before the first train runs, determines success or failure!
Here are some of the principles that I adhere to:
* Always run freight trains to start - never, never bother with passenger routes.
* Distance matters - always make the line as long as practically possible (more on this to follow).
* Running expenses are always more important than fixed expenses - in other words design a simple but very efficient route that is long.
* Use the resources available to you at the beginning of the game - this is your loan limit! I will usually spend around $9M in the construction of my first route and purchasing my first train.
What makes an efficient route(?) :
* An efficient route is long, flat, and straight. I spend a lot of money to make sure that my route does not go up and then down, and then up again, and is straight. Long means over 30 minutes travel time - in other words longer than a game year. Any gradients on the line need to be as gentle as possible. I am not scared of using both tunnels and bridges to achieve my goal here, particularly if they are short
* An efficient route transports cargo in both directions for as much of the route as is possible. My trains run empty for < 10% of a round trip. I design my line in such a way that each station lines up in essentially a straight line. My initial cargo is either livestock/food or oil/fuel. The farm or oil well needs to be close to the city initially chosen to be supplied.
* An efficient route means placing very simple one-track stations to start. (upgrading stations is easy with current game updates - very different for those of us who started playing this game when it was first released.) Normally, I place two freight stations and a single passenger station adjacent to the first city that I supply.
* An efficient route, initially, is a single track only.
* An efficient route means profits - if one can make a profit with the first available locomotive pulling wagons with about 100 freight, then after upgrading to even the first next available locomotive means absolutely cleaning up.
What not to worry about:
* The size of the city chosen to the first to be supplied - I have built massively profitable lines where the initial demand for whatever I was supplying was < 40. As soon as supply is established demand will begin to increase.
* The size of the loan taken - if your initial planning is sound then it doesn't matter what the interest repayment is, profits will more than cover the payments. My usual loan is $9M, so the interest repayments are large, but, I don't care.
* Trips may take longer than a year - do not panic about the ugly red numbers in years where your train is between destinations. Rather, when your train docks, try to pay off the loan in increments of 500K whenever possible.
* You will lose money for a few years until full cargos are being run in both directions. It doesn't matter!
* Running only a single train - I can make profits, and get out of debt running a single train on a single line to a single city - no problem!
Other things to consider:
* Expansion - planning my initial route is done with expansion in mind. I usually have 3-4 other cities in mind to supply that are also close to that first chosen farm or oil well. The trick is to have planned in one's mind easy and cheap expansion to each city in turn that can be done with minimal track and due consideration to all the efficiency pointers already mentioned. The idea is to start supplying extra cities where most of track required is already laid. Yes, the initial route, which was a single track, needs to be doubled, but, by the time one is doing that loan repayments are already history and income is not a problem. After the second city is being properly supplied the game has already turned into a sandbox game. Anything done after that rarely needs consideration of expense!
I am fully aware that much of advice given here runs completely counter to accepted wisdom on this forum. All I can say is that following my own advice consistently allows me play in hard mode, starting in 1850, and getting out of debt somewhere between 10-20 years after starting!
The key is in the planning, design, and laying of that very first line...
With that said, the income needs/demands for trucks versus trains is completely different. You need the large income from trains to pay for the large investment required to build the infrastructure and buy the rolling stock to operate them.
Train Station vs Truck Station? 100K vs 10K. Slopes? Trucks can handle slopes and difficult terrain better than trains which are limited to a maximum grade. Cost of roads vs rail? I've not compared them directly, but you can build them cheaply and with default map generation settings you get a lot of free roads without having to spend a single dime. Trucks (with the exception of the Studebaker) can carry anything. Trains you have to choose specific wagons to carry specific goods.
Trucks and trains serve different purposes though. Trucks are best used for short to medium distances, whereas you want trains for long distance hauls. In the early game with your limited funds you are probably going to want to go trucks, unless you have a very specific optimal route (Fuel or Food) that allows you to haul in two directions. They can give you a very reliable income to pay off loans and allow you to take on future loans.
My Standard Operating Procedure is to establish a truck network connecting up all the cities in the area of the map I'm operating in using it as a backbone. I then establish cargo routes (Quarry to ConMat Plant to Town for example), and then allow my intercity freight network to distribute cargo as desired. The fact that trucks can carry all goods means I just have to ensure that I have sufficient capacity on a network link. If I tried to do this with trains I'd have to have multiple wagon types, or restrict different trains to hauling specific types of goods, and I'd be more likely to be running cargo in one direction (ie not very profitable). The fact that trucks can carry anything means that as long as I have one town producing Food, and another town producing ConMat (or Fuel or Goods, or Machines and Tools) I can have one product being shipped in one direction and another being shipped in the other direction, maximizing the profitability of the line. Both towns will come out ahead and profit is guaranteed, and requires nothing more than a truck line between the two.
I utilize trains more strategically or as a high capacity main trunk line. Tank cars for Oil/Fuel. Boxcars for distribution of Food/Goods/Machines/Tools, and Gondolas and Stake cars when I can find a strategic Steel/ConMat setup.
A strategic Steel/Conmat route would be one which picks up Steel at the start of a line and drops it off at one or more Goods or Machines Factories and then ends it's trip at a ConMat Plant. From there it picks up ConMat, and heads back towards the Steel Mill stopping off at towns along the way to deliver ConMat. A Gondola setup will take Iron/Coal near a ConMat Plant transport it to a Steel Mill. Pick up Slag/Stone and transport it back to the ConMat Plant.
Trucks are an incredibly cheap way to get resource producers and factories producing and get demand flowing. Setup a line and throw a few trucks on it. When you have the money you can either transition over to a rail setup, or just leave it to maintain demand and production.
In my European Freeplay series, I got Steel production going in the early 1870's by doing nothing other than connecting up a source of Iron Ore and a source of Coal up to my existing infrastructure, connected up a Steel Mill with a third line, connected a Machine Factory with a fourth line. A fifth line connected up a Chemical Plant to produce plastics, and by the mid-1870's I had Tools and Machines being produced and distributed with demand coming from the 7 connected towns.
It should come as no surprise that I would probably be the forums most outspoken proponent of trucks ;)
Railroad balance in the 1850-1900 period is totally pants on head. Freight cars are too expensive to run until you get to 80km/h-ish locomotives and passanger transport is too slow to be profittable.
You can make it work, but it is very, very specific to a map topography and industry placement and in pathological case, might never work. Higher difficulty levels just exacerbate the issue.
It's all smooth sailing from 1900+ when you get $30M loan and fast trains.
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=1200260809
If you skip right to the end, you can see that my road services were still subsidizing my train lines even after the year 2000 was reached.
And the level of difficulty of play doesn't matter either...
I only play hard games and always start in 1850 and always have a freight train based strategy - and it always works.
Perhaps more attention to detail on your part is required...
In fact, in 1917 my one oil train made a higher turnover than all of my road lines combined. Which is pretty amazing compared to Train Fever.