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If you’re playing on a fairly flat map, then I would think rail will invariably be more profitable - the costs and income are both proportional higher, so the margins are also higher.
The time when ships are useful is if you’re playing a treacherous mountain map (especially if you’re playing a custom map or have tweaked the mapgen config settings to up the challenge) - if it's going to cost 10-million+ just to build the rail, then ships can be a much better hard-mode start, as the initial investment is far lower, and you can get a few different routes set up for the same money, and not have to worry about the dreaded replacement expense creeping up too soon.
Again, it becomes a lot more useful on a map you’ve tweaked to have more water (and thus more impediments to building a cheap rail link too)
IF you can't use a train (inner city distribution, extremly short line, extreme inclination, etc..) use trucks.
Ships are only good for routes you don't care about, when a bridge would be too expensive or you really want to use ships.
No matter wich difficulty you choose, sooner or later you'rr hit the point where money doesn't matter anymore. From this point onwards trains are the way to go.
Shjps: good for short trips only, ie across a lake, etc. as the above said. They''re way too slow for long trips say up and down a river. They may haul quite a bit at a time but take forever. Money will be hard to come by, especially if half the trip is empty.
Trucks: also good for short trips only, especially if the terrain is too hilly for trains. Investment is lower, but the results (profit, fequency, etc.) are low also.
Trains: Haul more, faster, make more money in the same amount of time, and they're better for longer hauls, BUT only if the terrain is fairly flat. They're more expensive to set up (especially if you have to build tunnels or bridges), but you'll be in the green and they'll pay for themselves much faster.
SO, bottom line, make sure to use the best transport system for the map's situation. In general, I'd go for trains first, trucks for short trips or if tney're required, then ships. Remember, when starting out on a new map WHERE you start is the most important consideration.
Just a pity that the passenger ships (except hovercraft) are often very dsappointing.
(in the early days you just can't get enough passengers to make them profitable and later on ttrains are much faster).