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But I'd say around 2 keys for the price if you paint it. Keep in mind that not many people would want to purchase is in the first place.
Rule of thumb if you don't know go with half the price of paint.
Generally paint adds about 1/3-1/2 it's worth to a hat, so it's nearly always cheaper to buy it painted then it would be to paint and resell.
The black watch hat is valued at 2.33 refined. And as for the paint, it depends on which black you paint it with. After eight black costs about a 5 key, and A dististinctive lack of hue costs 1.6-2 keys.
Painting your black Watch hat the expensive Distinctive lack of hue would likely add around 4 ref - a key's worth of value to your hat. Depending on how patient you are to find a buyer.