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active crates: https://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Mann_Co._Supply_Crate/Active_series
retired crates: https://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Mann_Co._Supply_Crate/Retired_series
too lazy to look myself
But even then it is 1% chance to even get unusual, and if you get lucky you got 4/293 chance that hat to be one of those hats you mentioned and top that of with 1/14 chance to get burning flames effect.
It can maybe take a few years but think of the odds of getting the hat AND the effect.
Burning Flames is a series #1 Unusual effect, which can be unboxed from Mann Co. Supply Crates #1-25. Also, Crates #90 and onward can open any series of Unusual effects, which includes all cases as well.
The Virtual Viewfinder no longer drops as an Unusual variant, since it was changed to a miscellaneous slot cosmetic. Only hats drop as Unusuals.
Technically, your best bet would be to go with a series #1 crate, but those are expensive as high hell, and mostly contain Unique weapons for their items. And you also have the chance of getting a horrible effect like Green Confetti or Massed Flies. So only go with these crates if you have a boatload of money to blow on them, we're talking 100 crates or more.
I would personally recommend a Unlocked Multi-Class Cosmetic Crate, which can be bought from the Mann Co. Store for only $2.49. You can get the Killer Exclusive and the Crone's Dome from this crate, potentially with the Burning Flames effect, along with a lot of other all class unusual hats that are worth a bit, like the Hong Kong Cone. Unfortunately, you can't get the Team Captain from this crate.
And of course, you could also go for any regular case (or crates #90-103) and you have a similar chance, but with those crates you won't get all-class hats like the Killer Exclusive as often. You have a much higher chance of getting single-class hats. If you go with Mann Co. crates, however, it only costs around $1.80 for the key instead of $2.49 for a case key.
So there's my full answer. It's a lot to take in, but hopefully someone will use it to make an informed decision about unboxing.